Anirudh A
Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani, Hyderabad, Shameer Pet, Telangana, 500078, India.
Infect Dis Model. 2020 Jun 30;5:366-374. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.002. eCollection 2020.
Mathematical predictions in combating the epidemics are yet to reach its perfection. The rapid spread, the ways, and the procedures involved in containment of a pandemic demand the earliest understanding in finding solutions in line with the habitual, physiological, biological, and environmental aspects of life with better computerised mathematical modeling and predictions. Epidemiology models are key tools in public health management programs despite having a high level of uncertainty in each one of these models. This paper describes the outcome and the challenges of SIR, SEIR, SEIRU, SIRD, SLIAR, ARIMA, SIDARTHE, etc models used in prediction of spread, peak, and reduction of Covid-19 cases.
对抗疫情的数学预测尚未达到完美。大流行病的快速传播、传播方式以及控制过程，需要通过更好的计算机化数学建模和预测，尽早从与生活的习惯、生理、生物和环境方面相符的角度来理解并找到解决方案。流行病学模型是公共卫生管理项目中的关键工具，尽管这些模型中的每一个都存在高度不确定性。本文描述了用于预测新冠疫情病例传播、峰值和减少情况的SIR、SEIR、SEIRU、SIRD、SLIAR、ARIMA、SIDARTHE等模型的结果和挑战。
