Department of Sociology, Indiana University, 1020 E. Kirkwood Avenue, Ballantine Hall 744, Bloomington, IN, 47405, USA.
Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, 50 Willey Hall, 225 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA.
Demography. 2020 Aug;57(4):1513-1541. doi: 10.1007/s13524-020-00892-6.
Does education change people's lives in a way that delays mortality? Or is education primarily a proxy for unobserved endowments that promote longevity? Most scholars conclude that the former is true, but recent evidence based on Danish twin data calls this conclusion into question. Unfortunately, these potentially field-changing findings-that obtaining additional schooling has no independent effect on survival net of other hard-to-observe characteristics-have not yet been subject to replication outside Scandinavia. In this article, we produce the first U.S.-based estimates of the effects of education on mortality using a representative panel of male twin pairs drawn from linked complete-count census and death records. For comparison purposes, and to shed additional light on the roles that neighborhood, family, and genetic factors play in confounding associations between education and mortality, we also produce parallel estimates of the education-mortality relationship using data on (1) unrelated males who lived in different neighborhoods during childhood, (2) unrelated males who shared the same neighborhood growing up, and (3) non-twin siblings who shared the same family environment but whose genetic endowments vary to a greater degree. We find robust associations between education and mortality across all four samples, although estimates are modestly attenuated among twins and non-twin siblings. These findings-coupled with several robustness checks and sensitivity analyses-support a causal interpretation of the association between education and mortality for cohorts of boys born in the United States in the first part of the twentieth century.
教育是否以延迟死亡率的方式改变人们的生活?还是教育主要是促进长寿的未观察到的禀赋的代理?大多数学者的结论是前者是正确的,但最近基于丹麦双胞胎数据的证据对此结论提出了质疑。不幸的是,这些可能改变领域的发现——在其他难以观察到的特征之外,获得更多的学校教育对生存没有独立影响——尚未在斯堪的纳维亚以外的地区进行复制。在本文中,我们使用从链接的完整计数人口普查和死亡记录中抽取的代表性男性双胞胎对样本,首次在美国对教育对死亡率的影响进行了估计。为了进行比较,并进一步阐明邻里、家庭和遗传因素在教育与死亡率之间的关联中所起的作用,我们还使用了以下数据对教育-死亡率关系进行了平行估计:(1)童年时期居住在不同邻里的无关男性,(2)成长过程中居住在同一邻里的无关男性,以及(3)共享相同家庭环境但遗传禀赋差异较大的非双胞胎兄弟姐妹。我们发现,在所有四个样本中,教育和死亡率之间都存在着强有力的关联,尽管在双胞胎和非双胞胎兄弟姐妹中,估计值略有减弱。这些发现——加上几项稳健性检验和敏感性分析——为 20 世纪初在美国出生的男孩队列中教育和死亡率之间的关联提供了一个因果解释。