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早年铅暴露与男性寿命:来自历史市政供水系统的证据。

Early-Life Lead Exposure and Male Longevity: Evidence from Historical Municipal Water Systems.

作者信息

Fletcher Jason, Noghanibehambari Hamid

机构信息

La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1211, USA.

College of Business, Austin Peay State University, Marion St, Clarksville, TN 37040, USA.

出版信息

Explor Econ Hist. 2025 Jul;97. doi: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101701. Epub 2025 Jun 15.

Abstract

Several research strands document the life-cycle impacts of lead exposure during early life. Yet little is known about the long-run effects of lead exposure during early life on old-age mortality outcomes. In this study, we employ Social Security Administration death records linked to the full-count 1940 census and document that birth-city lead status negatively affects later life old age longevity. These impacts are larger for cities with acidic water and older pipeline systems that allow higher lead levels to leach into drinking water. Further, we show that the impacts are almost exclusively concentrated on the lead status of the birth-city and not the city of residence later in life. An instrumental variable strategy suggests reductions in longevity associated with birth-city lead status of about 9.6 months. We also find education, socioeconomic standing, and income reductions during early adulthood as candidate mechanisms. Finally, we use WWII enlistment data and observe reductions in measures of cognitive ability among lead-exposed individuals.

摘要

有几条研究线索记录了早年铅暴露对生命周期的影响。然而,对于早年铅暴露对老年死亡率结果的长期影响却知之甚少。在本研究中,我们利用与1940年全面人口普查相关联的社会保障管理局死亡记录,并证明出生城市的铅状况对晚年寿命有负面影响。对于那些水呈酸性且管道系统较旧、使得更多铅渗入饮用水的城市,这些影响更大。此外,我们表明,这些影响几乎完全集中在出生城市的铅状况上,而不是晚年的居住城市。一种工具变量策略表明,与出生城市铅状况相关的寿命缩短约9.6个月。我们还发现,成年早期的教育、社会经济地位和收入减少是可能的机制。最后,我们利用二战入伍数据,观察到铅暴露个体的认知能力指标有所下降。

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