School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Xueyan Road No. 1, Minhou County, Fuzhou, 350108, China.
Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, 350001, China.
Int J Public Health. 2020 Jul;65(6):741-746. doi: 10.1007/s00038-020-01434-y. Epub 2020 Jul 21.
The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronaviruses disease (COVID-2019) in areas with epidemics due to imported cases is a cause of concern in China; however, few studies have reported on the prevalence of COVID-19 in these areas.
The number of diagnosed cases in Fujian Province was collected, and the time distribution of these cases was analyzed.
The results showed that the COVID-19 prevalence in areas with epidemics due to imported cases could be divided into two stages. The first stage was an outbreak dominated by imported cases, with the data showing an obviously skewed distribution. The second stage was dominated by nonimported cases with sporadic and low-level fluctuations. Moreover, the data demonstrated that the ratio of unexplained infections to nonimported cases was increasing.
A two-stage outbreak in areas with epidemics due to imported cases, effective control of the "source of infection" and blocking of the transmission route can significantly minimize the peak height in the first stage and the spread of the epidemic in the second stage. Control of the epidemic in the second stage requires prevention and control of the aggregation of cases caused by unexplained infections.
由输入性病例引发疫情地区的 2019 年新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）爆发令人担忧；然而，鲜有研究报道这些地区 COVID-19 的流行情况。
收集福建省确诊病例数，并分析这些病例的时间分布。
结果显示，输入性病例引发疫情地区的 COVID-19 流行可分为两个阶段。第一阶段是以输入性病例为主的爆发阶段，数据显示呈明显偏态分布。第二阶段是由散发和低水平波动的非输入性病例主导。此外，数据表明，不明原因感染与非输入性病例的比例呈上升趋势。
输入性病例引发疫情地区呈两阶段爆发，有效控制“传染源”和阻断传播途径，可显著降低第一阶段的高峰和第二阶段的疫情传播。第二阶段疫情的控制需要预防和控制不明原因感染引起的聚集性病例。
