School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Australia.
School of Health Sciences, University of Newcastle, Australia.
Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2020 Sep;167:108362. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2020.108362. Epub 2020 Aug 3.
To examine and forecast the patterns of diabetes prevalence in synergy with obesity.
Prophet models were employed to forecast the prevalence of diabetes and obesity in 2030 using time-series data from the WHO Global Health Observatory data repository. K-means clustering models and self-organising maps were used to identify the patterns (clusters) of diabetes prevalence in association with obesity among 183 countries.
Three patterns of diabetes prevalence were identified, countries in cluster three were estimated to have the highest obesity (44.9%, 26.2-65.8%) and diabetes prevalence (25.3%, 18.3-32.6%) in 2030. By 2030, countries in the Eastern Mediterranean and Upper-middle-income are projected to have the highest prevalence of diabetes. Overall, Niue is likely to have the biggest impact of diabetes. Liberia is projected to experience the largest rise in the prevalence of diabetes, with over 100% growth from 2014 to 2030. Libya, Kuwait, UK, USA, Argentina, and Nauru are estimated to have the peak prevalence of obesity on their respective continents. There is no decline in the influence of obesity in 185 countries by 2030. Globally, the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase in 2030.
These estimates of diabetes prevalence in adults confirm continuity in the "diabetes crisis".
协同肥胖症研究和预测糖尿病流行趋势。
采用先知模型，利用世界卫生组织全球卫生观测站数据库中的时间序列数据，预测 2030 年糖尿病和肥胖症的流行率。采用 K 均值聚类模型和自组织映射模型，识别 183 个国家中与肥胖相关的糖尿病流行模式（聚类）。
确定了三种糖尿病流行模式，预计第三组国家的肥胖率（44.9%，26.2-65.8%）和糖尿病流行率（25.3%，18.3-32.6%）最高。到 2030 年，预计东地中海和中高收入国家的糖尿病流行率最高。总体而言，纽埃岛可能受到糖尿病的最大影响。利比里亚预计将经历糖尿病流行率的最大上升，与 2014 年相比增长超过 100%。利比亚、科威特、英国、美国、阿根廷和瑙鲁预计将在各自的大陆上达到肥胖率的峰值。到 2030 年，肥胖对 185 个国家的影响不会下降。全球范围内，预计 2030 年糖尿病流行率将上升。
这些成年人糖尿病流行率的估计证实了“糖尿病危机”的延续。
