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在新冠疫情背景下严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒的流行病学变化

Changing epidemiology of SARS-CoV in the context of COVID-19 pandemic.

作者信息

Bhattacharya S, Basu P, Poddar S

机构信息

Department of Zoology, Asutosh College, University of Calcutta, India.

Tomas Bata University in Zlin, Czech Republic.

出版信息

J Prev Med Hyg. 2020 Jul 4;61(2):E130-E136. doi: 10.15167/2421-4248/jpmh2020.61.2.1541. eCollection 2020 Jun.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a new form of β-coronavirus that has been recently discovered and is responsible for COVID 19 pandemic. The earliest infection can be traced back to Wuhan, China. From there it has spread all over the world. Keeping in view the above perspective, an attempt is made in order to find out the epidemiological pattern of COVID 19 pandemic, if any, in different geo-climatological regions of the world in terms of case incidence and mortality. This study is also an endeavor to review and analyze the gradual changes of the genetic makeup of SARS-CoV from evolutionary and epidemiological perspectives. The raw data of COVID-19 cases and death incidences were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO) website from the time period: 1 April to 6 April, 2020. The data that are utilized here for general and Case fatality rate (CFR) based analysis. Western pacific region, European region and Americas have the greatest number of infected cases (P < 0.001); whereas deaths have been found to be significantly higher in Europe (P < 0.001). Total number of confirmed cases and deaths in south-east Asia are comparatively lower (P < 0.001). Case fatality rate (CFR) has also found significant for European region. SARS-CoV-2 is considered to be a strain of SARS-CoV that has a high rate of pathogenicity and transmissibility. Result indicated that the European region has been affected mostly for both cases and death incidences. The novel mutations in SARS-CoV-2 possibly increase the virus infectivity. Genetic heterogeneity of this virus within the human population might originate as the representatives of naturally selected virus quasispecies. In this context, the presence of the asymptomatic individuals could be a significant concern for SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. Further studies are required to understand its genetic evolution and epidemiological significance.

摘要

严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)是一种新发现的β冠状病毒,是导致2019冠状病毒病大流行的病原体。最早的感染病例可追溯到中国武汉,随后疫情蔓延至全球。基于上述背景,本文旨在研究2019冠状病毒病大流行在世界不同地理气候区域的流行病学模式,包括病例发生率和死亡率。本研究还从进化和流行病学角度对SARS-CoV基因组成的逐渐变化进行了综述和分析。2019冠状病毒病病例和死亡发生率的原始数据收集自世界卫生组织(WHO)网站,时间范围为2020年4月1日至4月6日。这些数据用于基于总体和病死率(CFR)的分析。西太平洋地区、欧洲地区和美洲地区的感染病例数最多(P<0.001);而欧洲的死亡人数显著更高(P<0.001)。东南亚地区的确诊病例和死亡总数相对较低(P<0.001)。欧洲地区的病死率也有显著差异。SARS-CoV-2被认为是SARS-CoV的一个毒株,具有高致病性和高传播性。结果表明,欧洲地区在病例和死亡发生率方面受影响最大。SARS-CoV-2中的新型突变可能会增加病毒的传染性。该病毒在人群中的基因异质性可能源于自然选择的病毒准种的代表。在这种情况下,无症状感染者的存在可能是SARS-CoV-2流行病学的一个重大问题。需要进一步研究以了解其基因进化和流行病学意义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c1ca/7419125/8d9bf52288c9/jpmh-2020-02-e130-g001.jpg

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