College of Mangement, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Dec;27(36):45802-45813. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10430-x. Epub 2020 Aug 15.
This study sought to investigate the impacts of climate change on cereal production in China over the period 1990Q1-2013Q4. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the results showed that CO emissions, average temperature, and temperature variability have a significant negative impact on cereal production in the long run. However, energy consumption, average rainfall, labor force, and cultivated area significantly and positively influenced the production of cereal crops in the long run. Meanwhile, the study observed that rainfall variability has no significant effect on cereal production in the long run. The study again found that in the short run, CO emissions, average temperature, and temperature variability have a significant negative relationship with cereal production. Besides, energy consumption, average rainfall, rainfall variability, labor force, and the cultivated area had a significant positive association with cereal production in the short run. The results of the Granger causality test showed that there exists a unidirectional causality running from CO emissions, energy consumption, and labor force to the production of cereal crops in China. On the contrary, the study found no causality between cultivated area and cereal production. The study suggests that improved cereal crop varieties ought to be developed and introduced to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change in China. This will help to circumvent Huang et al.'s (2017) prediction of a decline in the total food self-sufficiency of China from 94.5% in 2015 to about 91% by 2025.
本研究旨在探讨 1990 年第一季度至 2013 年第四季度期间气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响。利用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）方法，结果表明，CO2 排放、平均温度和温度变率对粮食生产的长期影响呈显著负向。然而，能源消耗、平均降雨量、劳动力和耕地面积对粮食作物的长期生产有显著正向影响。同时，研究观察到降雨变率对粮食生产的长期影响不显著。本研究还发现，在短期内，CO2 排放、平均温度和温度变率与粮食生产呈显著负相关。此外，能源消耗、平均降雨量、降雨变率、劳动力和耕地面积与粮食生产在短期内呈显著正相关。格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明，CO2 排放、能源消耗和劳动力对中国粮食生产存在单向因果关系。相反，研究发现耕地面积与粮食生产之间不存在因果关系。本研究建议，应开发和引入改良的粮食作物品种，以应对中国气候变化的不利影响。这将有助于避免 Huang 等人（2017）预测的中国粮食自给率从 2015 年的 94.5%下降到 2025 年的约 91%。
