MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020 Aug 21;69(33):1127-1132. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6933e2.
The geographic areas in the United States most affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have changed over time. On May 7, 2020, CDC, with other federal agencies, began identifying counties with increasing COVID-19 incidence (hotspots) to better understand transmission dynamics and offer targeted support to health departments in affected communities. Data for January 22-July 15, 2020, were analyzed retrospectively (January 22-May 6) and prospectively (May 7-July 15) to detect hotspot counties. No counties met hotspot criteria during January 22-March 7, 2020. During March 8-July 15, 2020, 818 counties met hotspot criteria for ≥1 day; these counties included 80% of the U.S. population. The daily number of counties meeting hotspot criteria peaked in early April, decreased and stabilized during mid-April-early June, then increased again during late June-early July. The percentage of counties in the South and West Census regions* meeting hotspot criteria increased from 10% and 13%, respectively, during March-April to 28% and 22%, respectively, during June-July. Identification of community transmission as a contributing factor increased over time, whereas identification of outbreaks in long-term care facilities, food processing facilities, correctional facilities, or other workplaces as contributing factors decreased. Identification of hotspot counties and understanding how they change over time can help prioritize and target implementation of U.S. public health response activities.
美国受 2019 冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行影响最严重的地理区域随时间发生了变化。2020 年 5 月 7 日,美国疾病预防控制中心(CDC)与其他联邦机构一起,开始确定 COVID-19 发病率不断上升的县(热点地区),以更好地了解传播动态,并为受影响社区的卫生部门提供有针对性的支持。对 2020 年 1 月 22 日至 7 月 15 日的数据进行了回顾性分析(1 月 22 日至 5 月 6 日)和前瞻性分析(5 月 7 日至 7 月 15 日),以发现热点县。在 2020 年 1 月 22 日至 3 月 7 日期间,没有县符合热点标准。在 2020 年 3 月 8 日至 7 月 15 日期间,有 818 个县符合至少 1 天的热点标准;这些县包括美国 80%的人口。符合热点标准的县的日数量在 4 月初达到峰值,4 月中旬至 6 月初减少并稳定下来,然后在 6 月底至 7 月初再次增加。南部和西部人口普查区符合热点标准的县的比例从 3 月至 4 月的 10%和 13%分别增加到 6 月至 7 月的 28%和 22%。随着时间的推移,将社区传播确定为一个促成因素的比例增加,而将长期护理设施、食品加工设施、惩教设施或其他工作场所的疫情确定为促成因素的比例则有所下降。确定热点县及其随时间的变化情况,有助于优先考虑和针对美国公共卫生应对活动的实施。