Zimmermann Klaus F, Karabulut Gokhan, Bilgin Mehmet Huseyin, Doker Asli Cansin
Global Labor Organization, and Centre for Economic Policy Research UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University Maastricht The Netherlands.
GLO Istanbul University Istanbul Turkey.
World Econ. 2020 Jun;43(6):1484-1498. doi: 10.1111/twec.12969. Epub 2020 Jun 9.
Originating in China, the coronavirus has reached the world at different speeds and levels of strength. This paper provides an initial understanding of some driving factors and their consequences. Since transmission requires people, the human factor behind globalisation is essential. Globalisation, a major force behind global well-being and equality, is highly associated with this factor. The analysis investigates the impact globalisation has on the speed of initial transmission to a country and on the scale of initial infections in the context of other driving factors. Our cross-country analysis finds that measures of globalisation are positively related to the spread of the virus, both in speed and in scale. However, the study also finds that globalised countries are better equipped to keep fatality rates low. The conclusion is not to reduce globalisation to avoid pandemics, but to better monitor the human factor at the outbreak and mobilise collaboration forces to curtail diseases.
新冠病毒起源于中国，已以不同速度和强度蔓延至全球。本文初步探讨了一些驱动因素及其影响。由于病毒传播离不开人，全球化背后的人为因素至关重要。全球化作为推动全球福祉与平等的一股主要力量，与这一因素高度相关。本分析在其他驱动因素的背景下，研究了全球化对病毒传入一个国家的速度以及初始感染规模的影响。我们的跨国分析发现，全球化指标与病毒传播的速度和规模均呈正相关。然而，研究还发现，全球化程度较高的国家在降低死亡率方面更有能力。结论并非是为避免大流行而减少全球化，而是要在疫情爆发时更好地监测人为因素，并动员合作力量来遏制疾病。
