描述新冠疫情自由传播的SEIR模型的解析解。
Analytical solution of SEIR model describing the free spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.
作者信息
Piovella Nicola
机构信息
Dipartimento di Fisica "Aldo Pontremoli", Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria 16, Milano I-20133, Italy.
出版信息
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Nov;140:110243. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110243. Epub 2020 Aug 24.
Abstract
We analytically study the SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed) epidemic model. The aim is to provide simple analytical expressions for the peak and asymptotic values and their characteristic times of the populations affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
摘要
我们对SEIR（易感-暴露-感染-康复）传染病模型进行了分析研究。目的是为受新冠疫情影响的人群的峰值、渐近值及其特征时间提供简单的解析表达式。
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