日本关闭学校和自愿取消活动作为新冠对策的效果预估。
Estimated effectiveness of school closure and voluntary event cancellation as COVID-19 countermeasures in Japan.
机构信息
Department of Nursing, Tokiwa University, Ibaraki, Japan.
National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan.
出版信息
J Infect Chemother. 2021 Jan;27(1):62-64. doi: 10.1016/j.jiac.2020.08.012. Epub 2020 Aug 19.
BACKGROUND
As countermeasures against the COVID-19 outbreak, sports and entertainment events were canceled (VEC) in Japan for two weeks from 26 February through 13 March. Moreover, most schools were closed (SC).
OBJECTIVE
For this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R) and SC and VEC effects.
METHOD
After constructing a susceptible-infected-recovered model with three age classes, we used data of symptomatic patients in Japan for 14 January through 24 March. The SC and VEC effects were incorporated into the model through changes in contact patterns and contact frequencies among age classes.
RESULTS
Results suggest R as 2.56, with 95% CI of [2.51, 2.96] before SC and VEC. The respective effects of SC and VEC were estimated as 0.4 (95% CI [0.3, 0.5]) and 0.5 (95% CI [0.3, 0.7]).
CONCLUSION
The estimated R is similar to those found from other studies of China and Japan. Significant reduction of contact frequency has been achieved by SC and VEC. Nevertheless, its magnitude was insufficient to contain the outbreak.
背景
作为针对 COVID-19 疫情的对策，日本从 2 月 26 日至 3 月 13 日两周内取消了体育和娱乐活动（VEC）。此外，大多数学校关闭（SC）。
目的
在这项研究中，我们估计了基本繁殖数（R）以及 SC 和 VEC 的效果。
方法
我们构建了一个具有三个年龄组的易感染-感染-恢复模型，使用了 1 月 14 日至 3 月 24 日期间日本有症状患者的数据。通过改变年龄组之间的接触模式和接触频率，将 SC 和 VEC 效应纳入模型。
结果
结果表明，在 SC 和 VEC 之前，R 为 2.56，95%CI 为 [2.51, 2.96]。SC 和 VEC 的各自效应估计为 0.4（95%CI [0.3, 0.5]）和 0.5（95%CI [0.3, 0.7]）。
结论
估计的 R 与中国和日本的其他研究结果相似。SC 和 VEC 显著降低了接触频率。然而，其幅度不足以遏制疫情。
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