社交距离措施的实施时机和遵守程度对美国 COVID-19 负担的影响：一种模拟建模方法。
Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States : A Simulation Modeling Approach.
机构信息
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (O.A., A.K.S.).
University of Wisconsin-Madison, School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin (B.W.P., M.C.).
出版信息
Ann Intern Med. 2021 Jan;174(1):50-57. doi: 10.7326/M20-4096. Epub 2020 Oct 27.
BACKGROUND
Across the United States, various social distancing measures were implemented to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the effectiveness of such measures for specific regions with varying population demographic characteristics and different levels of adherence to social distancing is uncertain.
OBJECTIVE
To determine the effect of social distancing measures in unique regions.
DESIGN
An agent-based simulation model.
SETTING
Agent-based model applied to Dane County, Wisconsin; the Milwaukee metropolitan (metro) area; and New York City (NYC).
PATIENTS
Synthetic population at different ages.
INTERVENTION
Different times for implementing and easing social distancing measures at different levels of adherence.
MEASUREMENTS
The model represented the social network and interactions among persons in a region, considering population demographic characteristics, limited testing availability, "imported" infections, asymptomatic disease transmission, and age-specific adherence to social distancing measures. The primary outcome was the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.
RESULTS
The timing of and adherence to social distancing had a major effect on COVID-19 occurrence. In NYC, implementing social distancing measures 1 week earlier would have reduced the total number of confirmed cases from 203 261 to 41 366 as of 31 May 2020, whereas a 1-week delay could have increased the number of confirmed cases to 1 407 600. A delay in implementation had a differential effect on the number of cases in the Milwaukee metro area versus Dane County, indicating that the effect of social distancing measures varies even within the same state.
LIMITATION
The effect of weather conditions on transmission dynamics was not considered.
CONCLUSION
The timing of implementing and easing social distancing measures has major effects on the number of COVID-19 cases.
PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
背景
在美国各地，实施了各种社交距离措施来控制 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。然而，对于具有不同人口人口统计学特征和不同程度遵守社交距离措施的特定地区，这些措施的有效性尚不确定。
目的
确定社交距离措施在特定地区的效果。
设计
基于代理的模拟模型。
设置
基于代理的模型应用于威斯康星州戴恩县；密尔沃基都会区（大都市）；和纽约市（NYC）。
患者
不同年龄的合成人群。
干预
不同时间实施和放宽不同程度遵守的社交距离措施。
测量
该模型代表了一个地区的社会网络和人员之间的相互作用，考虑了人口人口统计学特征、有限的测试可用性、“输入”感染、无症状疾病传播以及特定年龄的社交距离措施的遵守情况。主要结果是确诊的 COVID-19 病例总数。
结果
社交距离的时间安排和遵守情况对 COVID-19 的发生有重大影响。在纽约市，如果提前一周实施社交距离措施，截至 2020 年 5 月 31 日，将使确诊的病例总数从 203261 例减少到 41366 例，而延迟一周可能会使确诊病例数增加到 1407600 例。实施延迟对密尔沃基大都市地区与戴恩县的病例数量产生了不同的影响，这表明即使在同一州内，社交距离措施的效果也有所不同。
局限性
未考虑天气条件对传播动态的影响。
结论
实施和放宽社交距离措施的时间对 COVID-19 病例的数量有重大影响。
主要资金来源
国家过敏和传染病研究所。
Zotero 插件