Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Institute for Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, Sydney, Australia.
Health Econ. 2021 Jan;30(1):3-19. doi: 10.1002/hec.4173. Epub 2020 Oct 31.
Use of choice models is growing rapidly in tobacco research. These models are being used to answer key policy questions. However, certain aspects of smokers' choice behavior are not well understood. One such feature is addiction. Here, we address this issue by modeling data from a choice experiment on the US smokers. We model addiction using a latent variable. We use this latent variable to understand the relationship between choices and addiction, giving attention to nicotine levels. We find that more addicted smokers have stronger preferences for cigarettes and are unwilling to switch to e-cigarettes. Addicted smokers value nicotine in tobacco products to a much greater extent than those that are less addicted. Lastly, we forecast short-term responses to lowering nicotine levels in cigarettes. The results suggest that current nicotine-focused policies could be effective at encouraging addicted smokers to less harmful products and lead to substantial public health gains.
选择模型在烟草研究中的应用正在迅速增加。这些模型被用于回答关键的政策问题。然而，吸烟者选择行为的某些方面还没有得到很好的理解。其中一个特征是成瘾性。在这里，我们通过对美国吸烟者进行选择实验的数据来解决这个问题。我们使用潜在变量来对成瘾性进行建模。我们使用这个潜在变量来理解选择和成瘾之间的关系，同时关注尼古丁水平。我们发现，成瘾性更强的吸烟者对香烟有更强的偏好，并且不愿意转向电子烟。成瘾性吸烟者对烟草产品中的尼古丁的重视程度要远远高于那些成瘾性较低的吸烟者。最后，我们对降低香烟中尼古丁含量的短期反应进行了预测。结果表明，目前以尼古丁为重点的政策可能会有效地鼓励成瘾性吸烟者使用危害较小的产品，并带来巨大的公共卫生收益。
