Gurney Kevin R, Liang Jianming, Patarasuk Risa, Song Yang, Huang Jianhua, Roest Geoffrey
School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ USA.
School of Life Sciences Arizona State University Tempe AZ USA.
J Geophys Res Atmos. 2020 Oct 16;125(19):e2020JD032974. doi: 10.1029/2020JD032974. Epub 2020 Oct 5.
Estimates of high-resolution greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become a critical component of climate change research and an aid to decision makers considering GHG mitigation opportunities. The "Vulcan Project" is an effort to estimate bottom-up carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (FFCO) for the U.S. landscape at space and time scales that satisfy both scientific and policy needs. Here, we report on the Vulcan version 3.0 which quantifies emissions at a resolution of 1 km/hr for the 2010-2015 time period. We estimate 2011 FFCO emissions of 1,589.9 TgC with a 95% confidence interval of 1,367/1,853 TgC (-14.0%/+16.6%), implying a one-sigma uncertainty of ~ ±8%. Per capita emissions are larger in states dominated by electricity production and industrial activity and smaller where onroad and building emissions dominate. The U.S. FFCO emissions center of mass (CoM) is located in the state of Missouri with mean seasonality that moves on a near-elliptical NE/SW path. Comparison to ODIAC, a global gridded FFCO emissions estimate, shows large total emissions differences (100.4 TgC for year 2011), a spatial correlation of 0.68 (R), and a mean absolute relative difference at the 1 km scale of 104.3%. The Vulcan data product offers a high-resolution estimate of FFCO emissions in every U.S. city, obviating costly development of self-reported urban inventories. The Vulcan v3.0 annual gridded emissions data product can be downloaded from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (Gurney, Liang, et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1741).
高分辨率温室气体（GHG）排放估算已成为气候变化研究的关键组成部分，并有助于决策者考虑温室气体减排机会。“火神计划”致力于在满足科学和政策需求的时空尺度上，自下而上估算美国陆域化石燃料燃烧和水泥生产（FFCO）产生的二氧化碳排放量。在此，我们报告火神3.0版本，它对2010 - 2015年时间段的排放量进行了1公里/小时分辨率的量化。我们估算2011年FFCO排放量为1589.9太克碳，95%置信区间为1367/1853太克碳（-14.0%/+16.6%），这意味着单标准差不确定性约为±8%。在以电力生产和工业活动为主的州，人均排放量较大；而在道路和建筑排放占主导的地区，人均排放量较小。美国FFCO排放质心（CoM）位于密苏里州，其平均季节性变化沿近椭圆形的东北/西南路径移动。与全球网格化FFCO排放估算ODIAC相比，总排放量差异较大（2011年为100.4太克碳），空间相关性为0.68（R），在1公里尺度上的平均绝对相对差异为104.3%。火神数据产品提供了美国每个城市FFCO排放的高分辨率估算，避免了自行报告城市排放清单的高昂成本。火神v3.0年度网格化排放数据产品可从橡树岭国家实验室分布式活动存档中心下载（Gurney, Liang, et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1741）。
