Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892.
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Health Phys. 2020 Aug;119(2):222-235. doi: 10.1097/HP.0000000000001206.
Uncertainties in thyroid doses due to I intake were evaluated for 2,239 subjects in a case-control study of thyroid cancer following exposure to Chernobyl fallout during childhood and adolescence carried out in contaminated regions of Belarus and Russia. Using new methodological developments that became available recently, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure was applied to calculate 1,000 alternative vectors of thyroid doses due to I intake for the study population of 2,239 subjects accounting for sources of shared and unshared errors. An overall arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses in the study was estimated to be 0.43 Gy and median dose of 0.16 Gy. The arithmetic mean and median of deterministic doses estimated previously for 1,615 of 2,239 study subjects were 0.48 Gy and 0.20 Gy, respectively. The geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic doses varied from 1.59 to 3.61 with an arithmetic mean of 1.94 and a geometric mean of 1.89 over all subjects of the study. These multiple sets of thyroid doses were used to update radiation-related thyroid cancer risks in the study population exposed to I after the Chernobyl accident.
在白俄罗斯和俄罗斯受切尔诺贝利事故影响的污染地区，对 2239 名儿童和青少年时期接触切尔诺贝利沉降物后发生甲状腺癌的病例对照研究中，评估了 I 摄入导致的甲状腺剂量不确定性。使用最近新开发的方法学进展，应用蒙特卡罗模拟程序，针对 2239 名研究对象人群，计算了 1000 种 I 摄入导致的甲状腺剂量的替代向量，同时考虑了共享和非共享误差的来源。研究人群中随机甲状腺剂量的算术平均值估计为 0.43Gy，中位数剂量为 0.16Gy。先前针对 2239 名研究对象中的 1615 名估计的确定性剂量的算术平均值和中位数分别为 0.48Gy 和 0.20Gy。个体随机剂量的几何标准差从 1.59 到 3.61 不等，所有研究对象的算术平均值为 1.94，几何平均值为 1.89。使用这些多组甲状腺剂量更新了研究人群在切尔诺贝利事故后接触 I 后的辐射相关甲状腺癌风险。
