*State Institution "National Research Centre for Radiation Medicine," National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, 53 Melnikova Street, 04050 Kyiv, Ukraine; †Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 12/106 Lysogirska Street, 03028 Kyiv, Ukraine; ‡MJP Risk Assessment, Inc., P.O. Box 200937, Denver, CO 80220-0937; §Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892; **U.S. National Cancer Institute (retired).
Health Phys. 2014 Mar;106(3):370-96. doi: 10.1097/HP.0b013e31829f3096.
In collaboration with the Ukrainian Research Center for Radiation Medicine, the U.S. National Cancer Institute initiated a cohort study of children and adolescents exposed to Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine to better understand the long-term health effects of exposure to radioactive iodines. All 13,204 cohort members were subjected to at least one direct thyroid measurement between 30 April and 30 June 1986 and resided at the time of the accident in the northern parts of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, or Chernihiv Oblasts, which were the most contaminated territories of Ukraine as a result of radioactive fallout from the Chornobyl accident. Thyroid doses for the cohort members, which had been estimated following the first round of interviews, were re-evaluated following the second round of interviews. The revised thyroid doses range from 0.35 mGy to 42 Gy, with 95% of the doses between 1 mGy and 4.2 Gy, an arithmetic mean of 0.65 Gy, and a geometric mean of 0.19 Gy. These means are 70% of the previous estimates, mainly because of the use of country-specific thyroid masses. Many of the individual thyroid dose estimates show substantial differences because of the use of an improved questionnaire for the second round of interviews. Limitations of the current set of thyroid dose estimates are discussed. For the epidemiologic study, the most notable improvement is a revised assessment of the uncertainties, as shared and unshared uncertainties in the parameter values were considered in the calculation of the 1,000 stochastic estimates of thyroid dose for each cohort member. This procedure makes it possible to perform a more realistic risk analysis.
与乌克兰辐射医学研究中心合作，美国国家癌症研究所启动了一项针对在乌克兰遭受切尔诺贝利辐射沉降物照射的儿童和青少年的队列研究，以更好地了解暴露于放射性碘对长期健康的影响。所有 13204 名队列成员在 1986 年 4 月 30 日至 6 月 30 日之间至少接受了一次直接甲状腺测量，并且在事故发生时居住在基辅、日托米尔或切尔尼戈夫州的北部地区，这些地区是乌克兰受放射性沉降物污染最严重的地区切尔诺贝利事故的后果。根据第一轮访谈估算的队列成员甲状腺剂量，在第二轮访谈后进行了重新评估。修订后的甲状腺剂量范围为 0.35 毫戈瑞至 42 戈瑞，95%的剂量在 1 毫戈瑞至 4.2 戈瑞之间，算术平均值为 0.65 戈瑞，几何平均值为 0.19 戈瑞。这些平均值是之前估计值的 70%，主要是因为使用了特定国家的甲状腺质量。由于第二轮访谈使用了改进的问卷，许多个体甲状腺剂量估算值显示出显著差异。当前甲状腺剂量估算值的局限性进行了讨论。对于这项流行病学研究，最显著的改进是对不确定性进行了重新评估，因为在计算每个队列成员的 1000 个随机甲状腺剂量估算值时，考虑了参数值的共享和非共享不确定性。该程序使得进行更现实的风险分析成为可能。
