Lim Jun-Sik, Cho Sung-Il, Ryu Sukhyun, Pak Son-Il
College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Korea.
Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020 Nov;53(6):405-408. doi: 10.3961/jpmph.20.288. Epub 2020 Oct 20.
In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R0 was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R0 has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R0 and the effective reproduction number (Rt). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R0 should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for Rt due to the incubation period of the disease.
在流行病学中，基本繁殖数（R0）是一个描述在易感人群中1例病例所引发的预期感染数的术语。在2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行初期，公共卫生界和广大公众经常提及R0。然而，这一指标经常被滥用或误解。此外，估计R0过程的复杂性给大量研究人员带来了困难。在本文中，为了提高这一概念的可及性，我们探讨了与R0和有效繁殖数（Rt）的阈值特征相关的几个误解。此外，还讨论了这些指标的恰当解释。R0应被视为根据随机传播过程汇总接触结构的人群平均值。此外，有必要了解由于疾病潜伏期导致的Rt不可避免的时间滞后。
