Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Konyang University, Daejeon 35365, Korea.
Korean Society of Epidemiology 2019-nCoV Task Force Team, Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Apr 29;17(9):3113. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17093113.
: In March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from China, a country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection has arrived in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in the Korean home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. : To estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students from China, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and performed a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. : Under the home-quarantine program, the number of the infected individuals would reach 40-72 from 12 March-24 March with the arrival of 0.2% of pre-infectious individuals. Furthermore, the number of isolated individuals would peak at 40-64 from 13 March-27 March in Seoul, South Korea. Our findings indicated when incoming international students showed strict compliance with quarantine, epidemics by the international student from China were less likely to occur in Seoul, South Korea. : To mitigate possible epidemics, additional efforts to improve the compliance of home-quarantine of the individuals from countries with the virus risk are warranted along with other containment policies.
2020 年 3 月，共有 3.7 万名来自中国这一 2019 年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）感染高风险国家的国际学生抵达韩国首尔。这些来自感染高风险国家的人被纳入韩国的居家隔离计划，但该计划的效果尚不确定。
为了估算大量来自中国的国际学生入境可能感染的人数，我们使用了一种用于传染病的确定性隔室模型，并基于模拟搜索了不同的居家隔离遵守率。
在居家隔离计划下，从 3 月 12 日至 24 日，每入境 0.2%的潜伏期个体，预计将有 40-72 例感染者。此外，3 月 13 日至 27 日，韩国首尔的隔离个体人数将达到峰值 40-64 人。我们的研究结果表明，当入境的国际学生严格遵守隔离规定时，韩国首尔发生中国籍国际学生引发的疫情的可能性就会降低。
为了减轻可能发生的疫情，有必要加强对来自病毒感染高风险国家的人的居家隔离的遵守程度，并辅以其他遏制政策。
