At the time of this study, Benjamin Ridenhour and Jessica M. Kowalik were with the Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN. David K. Shay was with the Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.
Am J Public Health. 2014 Feb;104(2):e32-41. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301704. Epub 2013 Dec 12.
We assessed public health use of R0, the basic reproduction number, which estimates the speed at which a disease is capable of spreading in a population. These estimates are of great public health interest, as evidenced during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic. We reviewed methods commonly used to estimate R0, examined their practical utility, and assessed how estimates of this epidemiological parameter can inform mitigation strategy decisions. In isolation, R0 is a suboptimal gauge of infectious disease dynamics across populations; other disease parameters may provide more useful information. Nonetheless, estimation of R0 for a particular population is useful for understanding transmission in the study population. Considered in the context of other epidemiologically important parameters, the value of R0 may lie in better understanding an outbreak and in preparing a public health response.
我们评估了 R0（基本繁殖数）在公共卫生中的应用，R0 用于估计疾病在人群中传播的速度。这些估计对于公共卫生非常重要，在 2009 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行期间就证明了这一点。我们回顾了常用于估计 R0 的方法，研究了它们的实际效用，并评估了如何利用该流行病学参数来制定缓解策略。孤立地来看，R0 并不是衡量人群中传染病动态的最佳指标；其他疾病参数可能提供更有用的信息。尽管如此，估计特定人群的 R0 对于了解研究人群中的传播仍然是有用的。考虑到其他具有重要流行病学意义的参数，R0 的价值可能在于更好地了解疫情并为公共卫生应对做好准备。
