Diao Yinliang, Kodera Sachiko, Anzai Daisuke, Gomez-Tames Jose, Rashed Essam A, Hirata Akimasa
Department of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan.
Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan.
One Health. 2020 Dec 11;12:100203. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100203. eCollection 2021 Jun.
In this study, we analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in several cities of China, England, Germany, and Japan, where the first wave has undergone decay. Differences in medical and health insurance systems, as well as in regional policies incommoded the comparison of the spread and decay in different cities and countries. The spread and decay durations in the cities of the four studied countries were reordered and calculated based on an asymmetric bell-shaped model. We acquired the values of the ambient temperature, absolute humidity, and population density to perform multivariable analysis. We found a significant correlation ( < 0.05) of the spread and decay durations with population density in the four analyzed countries. Specifically, spread duration showed a high correlation with population density and absolute humidity ( < 0.05), whereas decay duration demonstrated the highest correlation with population density, absolute humidity, and maximum temperature ( < 0.05). The effect of population density was almost nonexistent in China because of the implemented strict lockdown. Our findings will be useful in policy setting and governmental actions in the next pandemic, as well as in the next waves of COVID-19.
在本研究中，我们分析了新冠疫情在中国、英国、德国和日本部分已度过第一波疫情衰退期的城市中的传播和衰退持续时间。医疗和医疗保险系统的差异以及地区政策给不同城市和国家间传播和衰退情况的比较带来了不便。基于非对称钟形模型对四个研究国家城市的传播和衰退持续时间进行了重新排序和计算。我们获取了环境温度、绝对湿度和人口密度的值以进行多变量分析。我们发现在四个分析国家中，传播和衰退持续时间与人口密度存在显著相关性（<0.05）。具体而言，传播持续时间与人口密度和绝对湿度高度相关（<0.05），而衰退持续时间与人口密度、绝对湿度和最高温度的相关性最高（<0.05）。由于实施了严格的封锁措施，人口密度的影响在中国几乎不存在。我们的研究结果将有助于制定下一次疫情以及新冠疫情后续波次中的政策和政府行动。
