Global Studies Institute, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland.
Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Biomedical Sciences, Università della Svizzera Italiana, 6900 Lugano, Switzerland.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Dec 18;17(24):9488. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17249488.
As of 27 March 2020, 199 countries and territories and one international conveyance are affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of the same date, Italy represents the third country worldwide in total number of cases and the first one in total number of deaths. The purpose of this study is to analyse the Italian case and identify key problem questions and lessons learned from the Italian experience. The study initially provides a general overview of the country's characteristics and health care system, followed by a detailed description of the Italian epidemiological picture regarding COVID-19. Afterwards, all non-pharmaceutical measures adopted by the Government against COVID-19 are presented in chronological order. The study explores some estimations of the economic impact of the epidemic, as well as its implications for society, lifestyle, and social media reactions. Finally, the study refers to two types of mathematical models to predict the evolution of the spread of COVID-19 disease. Having considered all of the above-mentioned aspects, some significant issues can be raised, including the following: (1) the available epidemiological data presents some gaps and potential biases; (2) mathematical models always come with high levels of uncertainty; (3) the high number of deaths should be interpreted in light of the national demographic context; and (4) the long-term management of the epidemic remains an open question. In conclusion, the Italian experience definitely highlights the importance of preparedness and early action, effective interventions and risk communication.
截至 2020 年 3 月 27 日，199 个国家和地区以及一个国际运输工具受到 COVID-19 大流行的影响。截至同日，意大利在病例总数方面是全球第三大国家，在死亡总数方面是全球第一大国家。本研究的目的是分析意大利的情况，确定关键问题，并从意大利的经验中吸取教训。该研究首先提供了该国特征和卫生保健系统的总体概述，然后详细描述了 COVID-19 在意大利的流行病学情况。之后，按时间顺序介绍了政府针对 COVID-19 采取的所有非药物措施。该研究探讨了一些关于该流行病的经济影响的估计，以及其对社会、生活方式和社交媒体反应的影响。最后，该研究提到了两种用于预测 COVID-19 疾病传播演变的数学模型。考虑到上述所有方面，可以提出一些重要问题，包括以下几点：（1）现有的流行病学数据存在一些差距和潜在的偏差；（2）数学模型总是存在高度的不确定性；（3）大量死亡人数应根据国家人口结构来解释；（4）长期管理该流行病仍是一个悬而未决的问题。总之，意大利的经验确实强调了做好准备和及早行动、有效干预和风险沟通的重要性。
