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哪些 COVID 政策最有效?基于管辖范围对 COVID-19 的贝叶斯分析。

Which COVID policies are most effective? A Bayesian analysis of COVID-19 by jurisdiction.

机构信息

INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France.

INSEAD, Singapore, Singapore.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2020 Dec 29;15(12):e0244177. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244177. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

This paper reports the results of a Bayesian analysis on large-scale empirical data to assess the effectiveness of eleven types of COVID-control policies that have been implemented at various levels of intensity in 40 countries and U.S. states since the onset of the pandemic. The analysis estimates the marginal impact of each type and level of policy as implemented in concert with other policies. The purpose is to provide policymakers and the general public with an estimate of the relative effectiveness of various COVID-control strategies. We find that a set of widely implemented core policies reduces the spread of virus but not by enough to contain the pandemic except in a few highly compliant jurisdictions. The core policies include the cancellation of public events, restriction of gatherings to fewer than 100 people, recommendation to stay at home, recommended restrictions on internal movement, implementation of a partial international travel ban, and coordination of information campaigns. For the median jurisdiction, these policies reduce growth rate in new infections from an estimated 270% per week to approximately 49% per week, but this impact is insufficient to prevent eventual transmission throughout the population because containment occurs only when a jurisdiction reduces growth in COVID infection to below zero. Most jurisdictions must also implement additional policies, each of which has the potential to reduce weekly COVID growth rate by 10 percentage points or more. The slate of these additional high-impact policies includes targeted or full workplace closings for all but essential workers, stay-at-home requirements, and targeted school closures.

摘要

本文报告了对大规模经验数据进行贝叶斯分析的结果,以评估自大流行开始以来,40 个国家和美国各州在不同强度级别上实施的 11 种 COVID-19 控制政策的有效性。该分析估计了每种类型和实施水平的政策与其他政策共同实施的边际影响。目的是为政策制定者和公众提供对各种 COVID-19 控制策略相对有效性的估计。我们发现,一组广泛实施的核心政策可以减少病毒的传播,但不足以控制疫情,除了在一些高度遵守规定的司法管辖区。核心政策包括取消公共活动、限制聚会人数不超过 100 人、建议居家、建议限制内部流动、实施部分国际旅行禁令以及协调信息宣传活动。对于中位数司法管辖区,这些政策将新感染病例的增长率从每周估计的 270%降低到每周约 49%,但这种影响不足以防止最终在整个人群中传播,因为只有当一个司法管辖区将 COVID 感染的增长率降低到零以下时,才能实现控制。大多数司法管辖区还必须实施其他政策,其中每一项都有可能将每周 COVID 增长率降低 10 个百分点或更多。这些额外的高影响政策包括针对所有非必要工作人员或全面关闭工作场所、居家要求和有针对性的学校关闭。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/88dc/7771876/62f12caada3d/pone.0244177.g001.jpg

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