Chirwa Gowokani Chijere, Dulani Boniface, Sithole Lonjezo, Chunga Joseph J, Alfonso Witness, Tengatenga John
Chancellor College, Economics Department, University of Malawi, Zomba, Malawi.
Chancellor College, Political and Administrative Studies Department, University of Malawi, Zomba, Malawi.
Eur J Dev Res. 2022;34(1):409-431. doi: 10.1057/s41287-020-00353-1. Epub 2021 Jan 4.
The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has paralysed many sectors of human life, including economic, social-cultural and political processes. In the political arena, several countries have postponed elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Other countries, including Malawi, went ahead with their planned elections. Malawi held a presidential election at a time when the number of COVID-19 cases was increasing rapidly. In this paper, we assess the effect of the perceived risk of catching COVID-19 on willingness to vote in the Malawi presidential election that was held on 23 June 2020. Turn out in this election was ten percentage points lower than in the general elections that were held a year earlier. The paper draws on a nationally representative survey of adult Malawians ( = 1155). In our main analysis, we use instrumental variables to account for potential endogeneity. We find that nearly two thirds of Malawians thought that they were likely to catch COVID-19 at some point. Notwithstanding the COVID-19 risk, 86% of the country's citizens were willing to vote. Our analysis shows that an individual's perceived risk of catching COVID-19 is associated with a lower likelihood of voting ( = - 0.096; < 0.05). This suggests that voter turnout in Malawi's fresh presidential election may have been highly affected by the perceived risk of catching COVID-19. The policy implication is that instituting and enforcing primary preventive measures may help reduce the perceived risk of catching COVID-19 and mitigate voter apathy.
新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）使人类生活的许多领域陷入瘫痪，包括经济、社会文化和政治进程。在政治领域，一些国家因COVID-19大流行而推迟了选举。包括马拉维在内的其他国家则按计划举行了选举。马拉维在COVID-19病例数迅速增加之际举行了总统选举。在本文中，我们评估了感染COVID-19的感知风险对2020年6月23日举行的马拉维总统选举中投票意愿的影响。此次选举的投票率比一年前举行的大选低了10个百分点。本文利用了一项对成年马拉维人具有全国代表性的调查（n = 1155）。在我们的主要分析中，我们使用工具变量来解释潜在的内生性。我们发现，近三分之二的马拉维人认为他们在某个时候可能会感染COVID-19。尽管存在COVID-19风险，但该国86%的公民愿意投票。我们的分析表明，个人感染COVID-19的感知风险与投票可能性较低相关（β = -0.096；p < 0.05）。这表明，马拉维新总统选举的投票率可能受到感染COVID-19的感知风险的高度影响。政策含义是，制定和实施初级预防措施可能有助于降低感染COVID-19的感知风险，并减轻选民冷漠情绪。
