中国快递业繁荣的低碳途径。
Low-carbon pathways for the booming express delivery sector in China.
机构信息
College of Civil & Transportation Engineering, Underground Polis Academy, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China.
School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-1041, USA.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2021 Jan 19;12(1):450. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-20738-4.
Express delivery services are booming in both developed and emerging economies due to their low cost, convenience, and the fast growth in online shopping. The increasing environmental impacts of express delivery services and mitigation potentials, however, remain largely unexplored. Here we addressed such a gap for China, a country which is expanding online retail sales and express delivery rapidly. We found a total of 8.8 Mt of scrap packaging materials were generated by the express delivery sector in China in 2018. Its transportation-related GHG emissions surged from 0.3 Mt in 2007 to 13.7 Mt of CO-equivalent (COe) in 2018, with an average of 0.27 kgCOe per piece. Over 80% from online shopping deliveries. We predict these emissions will reach 75 MtCOe by 2035. Nevertheless, it is possible to mitigate such GHG emissions by 102~134 MtCOe between 2020 and 2035 if a suite of policies is adopted, including a slowdown of delivery speed, fuel system upgrades, packaging materials reduction, logistics optimization, and carbon pricing.
由于成本低、方便快捷以及在线购物的快速增长，快递服务在发达经济体和新兴经济体中都呈现出蓬勃发展的态势。然而，快递服务不断增加的环境影响及其缓解潜力在很大程度上仍未得到探索。在这里，我们针对中国这一在线零售销售额和快递业务迅速扩张的国家，填补了这一空白。我们发现，2018 年中国快递业产生的废弃包装材料总计 880 万吨。其与运输相关的温室气体排放量从 2007 年的 0.3 百万吨增加到 2018 年的 1370 万吨二氧化碳当量（COe），平均每件 0.27 千克 COe。其中超过 80%来自于在线购物的快递配送。我们预计，到 2035 年，这些排放量将达到 7500 万吨 COe。然而，如果采取一系列政策，包括减缓快递速度、燃料系统升级、减少包装材料、物流优化和碳定价等，在 2020 年至 2035 年期间，仍有可能将此类温室气体排放量减少 1.02 亿至 1.34 亿吨。
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