Lulbadda Kushan Tharuka, Kobbekaduwa Dhanushka, Guruge Malika Lakmali
Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Moratuwa, Bandaranayake Mawatha, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka.
Department of Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiatong-Liverpool University, 111 Ren Ai Road, Dushu Lake Higher Education Town, Suzhou Industrial Park, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215123, China.
Clin Epidemiol Glob Health. 2021 Jan-Mar;9:231-236. doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.09.004. Epub 2020 Sep 28.
This study aims to explore the association between the spread of COVID-19 and external parameters. In this regard, temperature, population size, median age, and health care facilities of 58 different countries are considered as external factors.
A negative binomial regression model was fitted to identify the associations between the factors and cases of COVID-19 during the study periods.
The temperature, population size, and median age are positively associated with the spreading rate of COVID-19. There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline in countries with better health care facilities. Also, an empirical model was presented to estimate the number of cases within a country using the external parameters.
It is impossible to express the change in the number of cases for a unit increase in each of the variables because a change in a single variable depends on different values of other variables. However, the findings of this study provide useful implications for the authorities and decision-makers to take specific precautionary measures.
本研究旨在探讨2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）传播与外部参数之间的关联。在此方面，58个不同国家的温度、人口规模、年龄中位数和医疗保健设施被视为外部因素。
采用负二项回归模型来确定研究期间这些因素与COVID-19病例之间的关联。
温度、人口规模和年龄中位数与COVID-19的传播率呈正相关。没有证据支持在医疗保健设施较好的国家COVID-19病例数会下降。此外，还提出了一个实证模型，用于使用外部参数估计一个国家内的病例数。
由于单个变量的变化取决于其他变量的不同值，因此不可能表述每个变量单位增加时病例数的变化情况。然而，本研究结果为当局和决策者采取特定预防措施提供了有益启示。
