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新冠疫情后中国经济的复苏对其他国家的经济增长和能源消耗意味着什么?

What does the China's economic recovery after COVID-19 pandemic mean for the economic growth and energy consumption of other countries?

作者信息

Wang Qiang, Zhang Fuyu

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, PR China.

Institute for Energy Economics and Policy, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, PR China.

出版信息

J Clean Prod. 2021 May 1;295:126265. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126265. Epub 2021 Feb 10.

Abstract

China is the first major economy to show a recovery after a slowdown induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. This work aims to explore what the China's economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic means for the economic growth and energy consumption of the other countries using the global VAR quarterly data. In the long term, spillover effects of China's economic growth have the most obvious impact on upper-middle-income countries' economic growth (0.17%), followed by the economic growth of lower-middle-income countries (0.16%) and high-income countries (0.15%). However, the spillover effect of China's economic growth has the most significant impact on energy consumption in high-income countries (0.11%-0.45%), followed by energy consumption in upper-middle-income countries (0.08%-0.33%) and in lower-middle-income countries (-0.02%-0.05%). Our results indicate upper-middle-income countries will benefit the most from China's economic recovery post-COVID-19, followed by lower-middle-income countries and high-income countries. The spillover effect of China's economic recovery post-COVID-19 brings the most obvious impact on the increase in energy consumption in high-income countries, followed by middle-income countries. It also should be noted that the spillover effect of China's economic growth does not necessarily lead to an increase in energy consumption lower-middle-income countries. Generally, the spillover effect of China's economic recovery on other countries' economic growth is much more than other countries' energy consumption.

摘要

中国是首个在新冠疫情引发经济放缓后实现复苏的主要经济体。这项研究旨在利用全球向量自回归季度数据,探究新冠疫情后中国经济复苏对其他国家经济增长和能源消耗意味着什么。从长期来看,中国经济增长的溢出效应,对中高收入国家经济增长的影响最为明显(0.17%),其次是对中低收入国家(0.16%)和高收入国家(0.15%)的经济增长。然而,中国经济增长的溢出效应,对高收入国家能源消耗的影响最为显著(0.11% - 0.45%),其次是对中高收入国家(0.08% - 0.33%)和中低收入国家(-0.02% - 0.05%)的能源消耗。我们的研究结果表明,中高收入国家将从新冠疫情后中国的经济复苏中受益最大,其次是中低收入国家和高收入国家。新冠疫情后中国经济复苏的溢出效应,对高收入国家能源消耗增长的影响最为明显,其次是中等收入国家。还应注意的是,中国经济增长的溢出效应并不一定会导致中低收入国家能源消耗增加。总体而言,中国经济复苏对其他国家经济增长的溢出效应,远大于对其他国家能源消耗的溢出效应。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4a8/7874931/103428f98d2e/fx1_lrg.jpg

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