Biomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
BioMediTech, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
Front Public Health. 2021 Feb 12;9:593417. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.593417. eCollection 2021.
Interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many medical students do not have the required background in coding or mathematics to engage optimally in this approach. System dynamics is a methodology for implementing mathematical models as easy-to-understand stock-flow diagrams. Remarkably, creating stock-flow diagrams is the same process as creating the equivalent differential equations. Yet, its visual nature makes the process simple and intuitive. We demonstrate the simplicity of system dynamics by applying it to epidemic models including a model of COVID-19 mutation. We then discuss the ease with which far more complex models can be produced by implementing a model comprising eight differential equations of a Chikungunya epidemic from the literature. Finally, we discuss the learning environment in which the teaching of the epidemic modeling occurs. We advocate the widespread use of system dynamics to empower those who are engaged in infectious disease epidemiology, regardless of their mathematical background.
由于 COVID-19 大流行，人们对传染病数学模型的兴趣大增。然而，许多医学生没有所需的编码或数学背景，无法以最佳方式参与这种方法。系统动力学是一种将数学模型实现为易于理解的存量流量图的方法。值得注意的是，创建存量流量图与创建等效微分方程的过程相同。然而，它的可视化性质使过程变得简单直观。我们通过将其应用于包括 COVID-19 突变模型在内的传染病模型来展示系统动力学的简单性。然后，我们讨论了通过实施文献中包含 8 个基孔肯雅热流行微分方程的模型，更容易生成更复杂模型的问题。最后，我们讨论了进行传染病建模教学的学习环境。我们主张广泛使用系统动力学，使那些从事传染病流行病学的人都能掌握这一方法，无论其数学背景如何。
