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《2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）动力学的数学描述：巴西案例研究》。

A Mathematical Description of the Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Case Study of Brazil.

机构信息

Center for Nonlinear Mechanics, COPPE-Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 21.941.972-Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brazil P.O. Box 68.503.

出版信息

Comput Math Methods Med. 2020 Sep 30;2020:9017157. doi: 10.1155/2020/9017157. eCollection 2020.

DOI:10.1155/2020/9017157
PMID:33029196
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7528041/
Abstract

This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and numerical simulations related to the coronavirus dynamics. A description is developed based on the framework of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model. Initially, a model verification is carried out calibrating system parameters with data from China, Italy, Iran, and Brazil. Results show the model capability to predict infectious evolution. Afterward, numerical simulations are performed in order to analyze different scenarios of COVID-19 in Brazil. Results show the importance of the governmental and individual actions to control the number and the period of the critical situations related to the pandemic.

摘要

本文涉及与冠状病毒动力学相关的数学建模和数值模拟。基于易感-暴露-感染-清除模型框架，开发了一种描述方法。最初，通过使用来自中国、意大利、伊朗和巴西的数据对系统参数进行校准，对模型进行了验证。结果表明，该模型能够预测传染病的演变。随后，在巴西进行了数值模拟，以分析不同的 COVID-19 情景。结果表明，政府和个人采取行动控制与大流行相关的关键情况的数量和持续时间非常重要。

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