State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
Emerg Microbes Infect. 2021 Dec;10(1):507-535. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2021.1898291.
Without modern medical management and vaccines, the severity of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might approach the magnitude of 1894-plague (12 million deaths) and 1918-A(H1N1) influenza (50 million deaths) pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic was heralded by the 2003 SARS epidemic which led to the discovery of human and civet SARS-CoV-1, bat SARS-related-CoVs, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-related bat CoV HKU4 and HKU5, and other novel animal coronaviruses. The suspected animal-to-human jumping of 4 betacoronaviruses including the human coronaviruses OC43(1890), SARS-CoV-1(2003), MERS-CoV(2012), and SARS-CoV-2(2019) indicates their significant pandemic potential. The presence of a large reservoir of coronaviruses in bats and other wild mammals, culture of mixing and selling them in urban markets with suboptimal hygiene, habit of eating exotic mammals in highly populated areas, and the rapid and frequent air travels from these areas are perfect ingredients for brewing rapidly exploding epidemics. The possibility of emergence of a hypothetical SARS-CoV-3 or other novel viruses from animals or laboratories, and therefore needs for global preparedness should not be ignored. We reviewed representative publications on the epidemiology, virology, clinical manifestations, pathology, laboratory diagnostics, treatment, vaccination, and infection control of COVID-19 as of 20 January 2021, which is 1 year after person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was announced. The difficulties of mass testing, labour-intensive contact tracing, importance of compliance to universal masking, low efficacy of antiviral treatment for severe disease, possibilities of vaccine or antiviral-resistant virus variants and SARS-CoV-2 becoming another common cold coronavirus are discussed.
没有现代医学管理和疫苗,严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)引起的 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行的严重程度可能接近 1894 年鼠疫(1200 万人死亡)和 1918 年 A(H1N1)流感(5000 万人死亡)大流行的规模。COVID-19 大流行是由 2003 年 SARS 疫情引发的,导致发现了人类和果子狸 SARS-CoV-1、蝙蝠 SARS 相关 CoV、中东呼吸综合征(MERS)相关蝙蝠 CoV HKU4 和 HKU5 以及其他新型动物冠状病毒。4 种β冠状病毒(包括人类冠状病毒 OC43(1890 年)、SARS-CoV-1(2003 年)、MERS-CoV(2012 年)和 SARS-CoV-2(2019 年))疑似从动物到人类的跳跃表明它们具有重大的大流行潜力。蝙蝠和其他野生动物中存在大量冠状病毒,在城市市场中混合和销售它们,卫生条件较差,在人口稠密地区有食用外来哺乳动物的习惯,以及这些地区的快速和频繁航空旅行,都是酝酿迅速爆发的流行病的完美因素。从动物或实验室出现假设的 SARS-CoV-3 或其他新型病毒的可能性以及因此需要全球做好准备的可能性不容忽视。我们回顾了截至 2021 年 1 月 20 日(宣布 SARS-CoV-2 人与人之间传播一年后)有关 COVID-19 的流行病学、病毒学、临床表现、病理学、实验室诊断、治疗、疫苗接种和感染控制的代表性出版物。讨论了大规模检测的困难、劳动密集型接触者追踪、普遍佩戴口罩的重要性、抗病毒治疗对重症疾病的低疗效、疫苗或抗病毒耐药病毒变异的可能性以及 SARS-CoV-2 成为另一种普通感冒冠状病毒的可能性。