Universidade Estadual do Ceará. Av. Dr. Silas Muguba 1700, Itaperi. 60714-903 Fortaleza CE Brasil.
Departamento de Enfermagem, Universidade Estadual do Piauí. Parnaíba PI Brasil.
Cien Saude Colet. 2021 Mar;26(3):1023-1033. doi: 10.1590/1413-81232021263.42372020. Epub 2020 Dec 3.
Vulnerability is a crucial factor in addressing COVID-19 as it can aggravate the disease. Thus, it should be considered in COVID-19 control and health prevention and promotion. This ecological study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 cases in a Brazilian metropolis and its association with social vulnerability indicators. Spatial scan analysis was used to identify COVID-19 clusters. The variables for identifying the vulnerability were inserted in a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model to identify their spatial relationship with COVID-19 cases. The incidence of COVID-19 in Fortaleza was 74.52/10,000 inhabitants, with 3,554 reported cases and at least one case registered in each neighborhood. The spatial GWR showed a negative relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and demographic density (β=-0,0002) and a positive relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and the percentage of self-employed >18 years (β=1.40), and maximum per capita household income of the poorest fifth (β=0.04). The influence of vulnerability indicators on incidence showed areas that can be the target of public policies to impact the incidence of COVID-19.
脆弱性是应对 COVID-19 的一个关键因素，因为它会使病情恶化。因此，在 COVID-19 的控制和卫生预防与促进中，应考虑这一因素。本生态研究旨在分析巴西大都市 COVID-19 病例的发病率的空间分布及其与社会脆弱性指标的关联。空间扫描分析用于识别 COVID-19 病例的聚集区。识别脆弱性的变量被插入地理加权回归（GWR）模型中，以确定它们与 COVID-19 病例的空间关系。福塔雷萨的 COVID-19 发病率为 74.52/10000 居民，报告了 3554 例病例，每个街区至少有一例病例。空间 GWR 显示 COVID-19 发病率与人口密度呈负相关（β=-0.0002），与 18 岁以上自营职业者的比例呈正相关（β=1.40），以及最贫困五分之一的家庭人均收入最高（β=0.04）。脆弱性指标对发病率的影响显示了可以成为公共政策目标的区域，以影响 COVID-19 的发病率。
