估算西欧 COVID-19 的基本再生数。
Estimating the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in Western Europe.
机构信息
Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 17;16(3):e0248731. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248731. eCollection 2021.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe.
METHODS
Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature.
RESULTS
Despite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.6).
CONCLUSIONS
The value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.
目的
估计西欧 COVID-19 的基本繁殖数（R0）。
方法
检索西欧 15 个最大国家在疫情爆发初期（在宣布任何隔离规则之前）COVID-19 的累积发病率（发病例数）的数据（官方统计数据），这使我们能够估计疾病的指数增长率。然后将增长率与从文献中重建的代际间隔分布的估计值相结合。
结果
尽管 COVID-19 的一些官方统计数据可能不可靠，但该疾病在大多数欧洲国家的传播情况非常相似，这使我们能够估计西欧 COVID-19 的平均 R0 为 2.2（95%CI：1.9-2.6）。
结论
西欧 COVID-19 的 R0 值似乎明显低于中国。因此，在欧洲人口中，需要达到免疫的比例可能接近 50%，而不是 70%，才能阻止疫情爆发。
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