Julius Center for Health Science and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Julius Center for Health Science and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
J Clin Epidemiol. 2021 Apr;132:142-145. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.01.009.
Clinical prediction models play an increasingly important role in contemporary clinical care, by informing healthcare professionals, patients and their relatives about outcome risks, with the aim to facilitate (shared) medical decision making and improve health outcomes. Diagnostic prediction models aim to calculate an individual's risk that a disease is already present, whilst prognostic prediction models aim to calculate the risk of particular heath states occurring in the future. This article serves as a primer for diagnostic and prognostic clinical prediction models, by discussing the basic terminology, some of the inherent challenges, and the need for validation of predictive performance and the evaluation of impact of these models in clinical care.
临床预测模型在当代临床护理中发挥着越来越重要的作用，通过向医疗保健专业人员、患者及其亲属告知预后风险，旨在促进（共同）医疗决策并改善健康结果。诊断预测模型旨在计算个体患有疾病的风险，而预后预测模型旨在计算未来出现特定健康状况的风险。本文通过讨论基本术语、一些固有挑战以及对预测性能验证和这些模型在临床护理中的影响评估的需求，为诊断和预后临床预测模型提供了一个入门指南。
