Schilling R J, Bain R P
Center for Environmental Health and Injury Control, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30333.
Am J Epidemiol. 1988 Jul;128(1):197-205. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114941.
To help guide policy decisions about removing lead-contaminated soils, the authors estimated a regression model for predicting a child's blood lead level on the basis of his or her household-specific soil lead level. The data analyzed were blood lead levels (1-45 micrograms/dl) and household-specific soil lead levels (53-20,700 ppm) of 596 children aged 1-5 years who lived in the Helena Valley of Montana and the Silver Valley of Idaho during August 1983. A non-threshold, multiple linear regression model indicated that the estimated mean natural log transformed blood lead level increased by 0.231 micrograms/dl for each unit increase in natural log transformed soil lead level (ppm), after adjusting for the average number of daily outdoor play hours and whether someone in the household smoked. The model predicted that, at a soil lead level of 1,000 ppm, a child who does not play outside and who does not live in a household where someone smokes would be at low risk of lead toxicity (blood lead level between 4 and 24 micrograms/dl).
为帮助指导有关清除铅污染土壤的政策决策，作者估计了一个回归模型，用于根据儿童家庭特定的土壤铅含量预测其血铅水平。所分析的数据是1983年8月居住在蒙大拿州海伦娜山谷和爱达荷州银谷的596名1至5岁儿童的血铅水平（1至45微克/分升）和家庭特定的土壤铅含量（53至20,700 ppm）。一个非阈值多元线性回归模型表明，在调整每日户外玩耍小时数的平均值以及家庭中是否有人吸烟后，自然对数转换后的土壤铅含量（ppm）每增加一个单位，估计的平均自然对数转换后的血铅水平就会增加0.231微克/分升。该模型预测，在土壤铅含量为1000 ppm时，不外出玩耍且家中无人吸烟的儿童铅中毒风险较低（血铅水平在4至24微克/分升之间）。
