Department of Computer Science, Rutgers University, Piscataway, USA.
Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Sci Rep. 2021 Apr 8;11(1):7809. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-87034-z.
Major interventions have been introduced worldwide to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Large scale lockdown of human movements are effective in reducing the spread, but they come at a cost of significantly limited societal functions. We show that natural human movements are statistically diverse, and the spread of the disease is significantly influenced by a small group of active individuals and gathering venues. We find that interventions focused on these most mobile individuals and popular venues reduce both the peak infection rate and the total infected population while retaining high social activity levels. These trends are seen consistently in simulations with real human mobility data of different scales, resolutions, and modalities from multiple cities across the world. The observation implies that compared to broad sweeping interventions, more heterogeneous strategies that are targeted based on the network effects in human mobility provide a better balance between pandemic control and regular social activities.
全球范围内已经采取了重大干预措施来减缓 SARS-CoV-2 病毒的传播。大规模限制人员流动可有效减少病毒传播,但这会导致社会功能受到严重限制。我们表明,人类的自然活动具有统计多样性,疾病的传播受到少数活跃个体和聚集场所的显著影响。我们发现,针对这些流动性最强的个体和热门场所的干预措施可以降低峰值感染率和总感染人数,同时保持高水平的社会活动。在来自全球多个城市的不同规模、分辨率和模式的真实人类移动数据的模拟中,都可以看到这些趋势。这一观察结果表明,与广泛的全面干预相比,基于人类流动性中的网络效应进行有针对性的更具异质性的策略,可以在控制疫情和维持正常社会活动之间取得更好的平衡。