Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, 310023, China.
Environ Geochem Health. 2022 Sep;44(9):3115-3132. doi: 10.1007/s10653-021-00920-3. Epub 2021 Apr 12.
With the expansion of the global novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, unprecedented interventions have been widely implemented in many countries, including China. In view of this scenario, this research aims to explore the effectiveness of population mobility restriction in alleviating epidemic transmission during different stages of the outbreak. Taking Shenzhen, a city with a large immigrant population in China, as a case study, the real-time reproduction number of COVID-19 is estimated by statistical methods to represent the dynamic spatiotemporal transmission pattern of COVID-19. Furthermore, migration data between Shenzhen and other provinces are collected to investigate the impact of nationwide population flow on near-real-time dynamic reproductive numbers. The results show that traffic flow control between populated cities has an inhibitory effect on urban transmission, but this effect is not significant in the late stage of the epidemic spread in China. This finding implies that the government should limit international and domestic population movement starting from the very early stage of the outbreak. This work confirms the effectiveness of travel restriction measures in the face of COVID-19 in China and provides new insight for densely populated cities in imposing intervention measures at various stages of the transmission cycle.
随着全球新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行的蔓延，包括中国在内的许多国家都广泛实施了前所未有的干预措施。鉴于这种情况，本研究旨在探讨在疫情爆发的不同阶段，人口流动限制在缓解疫情传播方面的效果。本研究以中国移民人口众多的深圳市为例，通过统计方法估计 COVID-19 的实时繁殖数，以代表 COVID-19 的动态时空传播模式。此外，还收集了深圳与其他省份之间的迁移数据，以调查全国范围内人口流动对近乎实时动态繁殖数的影响。结果表明，人口稠密城市之间的交通流量控制对城市传播具有抑制作用，但在中国疫情传播后期这种效果并不显著。这一发现表明，政府应从疫情爆发的早期阶段开始限制国际和国内人口流动。这项工作证实了旅行限制措施在中国应对 COVID-19 的有效性，并为人口密集城市在传播周期的各个阶段实施干预措施提供了新的见解。
