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印度尼西亚在二氧化碳排放和农业方面的经济表现:时间序列分析。

Economic performance of Indonesia amidst CO emissions and agriculture: a time series analysis.

机构信息

Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Science, Cyprus International University, Nicosia, Mersin, Northern Cyprus, TR-10, Turkey.

Department of Business Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Girne American University, Mersin, North Cyprus, Turkey.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Sep;28(35):47942-47956. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13992-6. Epub 2021 Apr 25.

Abstract

To minimize the awful situation confronting the entire globe, the global warming danger has raised the intensity of consciousness from all areas of life. Therefore, the research assesses the impact of CO emissions and energy use on economic performance and considers trade openness, urbanization, and agriculture in Indonesia utilizing data covering the period from 1965 to 2019. The current research employed the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) tests to capture the long-run association between these economic indicators. Furthermore, the gradual shift and wavelet coherence tests are utilized to capture the direction of causality. The ARDL bound test discloses a long-run interconnection among the variables of interest. The outcomes of the ARDL and DOLS depict that CO emissions, agriculture, energy use, and urbanization trigger economic growth. Moreover, the wavelet coherence test findings revealed a positive correlation between economic growth and urbanization, CO emissions, agriculture, and energy consumption. Furthermore, there is evidence of a weak and positive correlation between economic growth and trade openness. The gradual shift causality test outcomes disclosed that economic growth can predict urbanization and energy consumption, while agriculture can predict economic growth. These outcomes have far-reaching significance for economic growth and the selected variables in Indonesia.

摘要

为了最大限度地减少全球面临的可怕局面,全球变暖的危险已经提高了生活各个领域的意识强度。因此,本研究评估了 CO 排放和能源使用对印度尼西亚经济绩效的影响,并考虑了贸易开放、城市化和农业因素,使用的数据涵盖了 1965 年至 2019 年期间。本研究采用动态普通最小二乘法(DOLS)和自回归分布滞后(ARDL)检验来捕捉这些经济指标之间的长期关联。此外,还采用渐进转移和小波相干检验来捕捉因果关系的方向。ARDL 边界检验揭示了感兴趣变量之间的长期互联关系。ARDL 和 DOLS 的结果表明,CO 排放、农业、能源使用和城市化推动了经济增长。此外,小波相干检验结果表明,经济增长与城市化、CO 排放、农业和能源消耗之间存在正相关关系。此外,经济增长与贸易开放之间存在微弱的正相关关系。渐进转移因果检验结果表明,经济增长可以预测城市化和能源消耗,而农业可以预测经济增长。这些结果对印度尼西亚的经济增长和所选变量具有深远的意义。

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