Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics and Economic Policy in Agribusiness, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznań, Poland.
PLoS One. 2021 Apr 30;16(4):e0250995. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250995. eCollection 2021.
It is estimated that about 1/4th of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may be caused by the global food system. Reducing the GHG emissions from food production is a major challenge in the context of the projected growth of the world's population, which is increasing demand for food. In this context, the goal should be to achieve the lowest possible emission intensity of the food production system, understood as the amount of GHG emissions per unit of output. The study aimed to calculate the emission intensity of food production systems and to specify its determinants based on a panel regression model for 14 countries, which accounted for more than 65% of food production in the world between 2000 and 2014. In this article, emission intensity is defined as the amount of GHG emissions per value of global output. Research on the determinants of GHG emissions related to food production is well documented in the literature; however, there is a lack of research on the determinants of the emission intensity ratio for food production. Hence, the original contribution of this paper is the analysis of the determinants of GHG emissions intensity of food production systems. The study found the decreased of emission intensity from an average of more than 0.68 kg of CO2 equivalent per USD 1 worth of food production global output in 2000 to less than 0.46 in 2014. The determinants of emission intensity decrease included the yield of cereals, the use of nitrogen fertilizers, the agriculture material intensity, the Human Development Index, and the share of fossil fuel energy consumption in total energy use. The determinants of growth of emission intensity of food production systems included GDP per capita, population density, nitrogen fertilizer production, utilized agriculture area, share of animal production, and energy use per capita.
据估计，全球食品系统产生的温室气体（GHG）排放量约占总量的四分之一。在世界人口预计增长的背景下，减少食品生产中的 GHG 排放是一项重大挑战，因为这会增加对食品的需求。在这种情况下，目标应该是实现食品生产系统的最低排放强度，即每单位产量的 GHG 排放量。本研究旨在根据 2000 年至 2014 年间占全球食品产量 65%以上的 14 个国家的面板回归模型，计算食品生产系统的排放强度，并确定其决定因素。在本文中，排放强度被定义为每单位全球产出的 GHG 排放量。关于与食品生产相关的 GHG 排放决定因素的研究在文献中已有充分记载；然而，关于食品生产排放强度比决定因素的研究却很少。因此，本文的原创贡献在于分析食品生产系统 GHG 排放强度的决定因素。研究发现，全球食品产量每 1 美元的价值的排放强度从 2000 年的平均超过 0.68 千克二氧化碳当量下降到 2014 年的不到 0.46 千克。排放强度降低的决定因素包括谷物产量、氮肥使用、农业物质强度、人类发展指数以及化石燃料在总能源使用中的份额。食品生产系统排放强度增长的决定因素包括人均国内生产总值、人口密度、氮肥产量、农业利用面积、畜牧业份额和人均能源使用量。
