Muniz-Rodriguez Kamalich, Chowell Gerardo, Schwind Jessica S, Ford Randall, Ofori Sylvia K, Ogwara Chigozie A, Davies Margaret R, Jacobs Terrence, Cheung Chi-Hin, Cowan Logan T, Hansen Andrew R, Chun-Hai Fung Isaac
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA.
Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA.
Perm J. 2021 May;25. doi: 10.7812/TPP/20.232.
In 2020, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 impacted Georgia, USA. Georgia announced a state-wide shelter-in-place on April 2 and partially lifted restrictions on April 27. We estimated the time-varying reproduction numbers (R) of COVID-19 in Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County and environs from March 2, 2020, to November 20, 2020.
We analyzed the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County and its surrounding counties, and estimated R using the R package EpiEstim. We used a 9-day correction for the date of report to analyze the data by assumed date of infection.
The median R estimate in Georgia dropped from between 2 and 4 in mid-March to < 2 in late March to around 1 from mid-April to November. Regarding Metro Atlanta, Rt fluctuated above 1.5 in March and around 1 since April. In Dougherty County, the median R declined from around 2 in late March to 0.32 on April 26. Then, R fluctuated around 1 in May through November. Counties surrounding Dougherty County registered an increase in R estimates days after a superspreading event occurred in the area.
In Spring 2020, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 transmission in Georgia declined likely because of social distancing measures. However, because restrictions were relaxed in late April and elections were conducted in November, community transmission continued, with R fluctuating around 1 across Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County as of November 2020. The superspreading event in Dougherty County affected surrounding areas, indicating the possibility of local transmission in neighboring counties.
2020年，严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2在美国佐治亚州造成影响。佐治亚州于4月2日宣布全州实施就地避难令，并于4月27日部分解除限制措施。我们估计了2020年3月2日至2020年11月20日期间佐治亚州、大亚特兰大地区以及道格拉斯县及其周边地区新冠病毒病的随时间变化的繁殖数（R）。
我们分析了佐治亚州、大亚特兰大地区以及道格拉斯县及其周边县确诊的新冠病毒病病例的每日发病率，并使用R包EpiEstim估计R。我们对报告日期进行了9天的校正，以便按假定的感染日期分析数据。
佐治亚州R估计值的中位数从3月中旬的2至4降至3月下旬的<2，并在4月中旬至11月期间降至约1。对于大亚特兰大地区，3月Rt波动高于1.5，4月以来约为1。在道格拉斯县，中位数R从3月下旬的约2降至4月26日的0.32。然后，5月至11月期间R在1左右波动。在该地区发生超级传播事件数天后，道格拉斯县周边县的R估计值有所增加。
2020年春季，佐治亚州严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2的传播可能因社交距离措施而下降。然而，由于4月下旬限制措施放松且11月举行了选举，社区传播仍在继续，截至2020年11月，佐治亚州、大亚特兰大地区和道格拉斯县的R均在1左右波动。道格拉斯县的超级传播事件影响了周边地区，表明邻县存在本地传播的可能性。
