封锁对新冠病毒感染率和死亡率的影响：伊朗的经验
Lockdown Effect on COVID-19 Incidence and Death: Iran Experience.
作者信息
Delavari Sajad, Jamali Zahra, Bayati Mohsen
机构信息
Health Human Resources Research Center, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
出版信息
Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2021 Jul 12:1-3. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2021.222.
OBJECTIVE
Countries are trying several policy options for decreasing the incidence and burden of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). One of these strategies is a lockdown, complete closure, to reduce the risk of distributing disease by means of social interactions. This study aimed to analyze the effect of a 3-week lockdown on the mortality and morbidity of COVID-19 in Iran.
METHODS
Official daily data on COVID-19 incidence and death reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) were extracted from September 1, 2020, to January 14, 2021. Data were analyzed using interrupted time series analysis by means of STATA 14 software.
RESULTS
Lockdown resulted in a significant reduction in the daily death from COVID-19 in the short-term (β = -139; P < 0.01) and in the long-term (β = -12; P < 0.01). Moreover, lockdown in the short-term insignificantly (β = -21.58; P = 0.969), and in the long-term significantly (β = -317.31; P < 0.01) reduced the COVID-19 daily incidence.
CONCLUSIONS
The results showed that the lockdown has a significant effect on incidence and death numbers. Therefore, it could be a suitable short-term strategy for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, its negative effects on households and businesses should be considered.
目的
各国正在尝试多种政策选项以降低2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的发病率和负担。其中一项策略是封锁，即完全封闭，以降低通过社交互动传播疾病的风险。本研究旨在分析为期3周的封锁对伊朗COVID-19死亡率和发病率的影响。
方法
提取世界卫生组织（WHO）报告的2020年9月1日至2021年1月14日期间COVID-19发病率和死亡的官方每日数据。使用STATA 14软件通过中断时间序列分析对数据进行分析。
结果
封锁在短期内（β = -139；P < 0.01）和长期内（β = -12；P < 0.01）均导致COVID-19每日死亡人数显著减少。此外，封锁在短期内对COVID-19每日发病率的降低不显著（β = -21.58；P = 0.969），而在长期内显著降低（β = -317.31；P < 0.01）。
结论
结果表明，封锁对发病率和死亡人数有显著影响。因此，它可能是控制COVID-19疫情的合适短期策略。另一方面，应考虑其对家庭和企业的负面影响。
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