Institute of Social Development, Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing, 100038, China.
Institute of Social Development, Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing, 100038, China.
Public Health. 2021 Sep;198:1-5. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.04.011. Epub 2021 Apr 27.
As a unique prevention and control measure, the dispatch of national medical teams to Wuhan has played a key role in protecting Wuhan against COVID-19. This study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the effect of this key measure in reducing infections and fatalities.
A scenario analysis is used in this study, where the forming of scenarios is on the basis of the stages of medical to Wuhan. We divided the evaluation into 4 scenarios: Scenario Ⅰ-no dispatch, Scenario Ⅱ-dispatch of 4599 medical staff, Scenario Ⅲ-dispatch of 16,000 staff, and Scenario Ⅳ-dispatch of 32,000 staff.
The extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Death model was adopted to quantify the effect of the dispatch of national medical teams to Wuhan on COVID-19 prevention and control.
The dispatch dramatically cuts the channels for the transmission of the virus and succeeds in raising the cure rates while reducing the fatality rates. If there were no dispatch at all, a cumulative total of 158,881 confirmed cases, 18,700 fatalities and a fatality rate of 11.77% would have occurred in Wuhan, which are 3.2 times, 4.8 times and 1.5 times the real figures respectively. The dispatch has avoided 108,541 confirmed cases and 14,831 fatalities in this city.
The proven successful measure provides valuable experience and enlightenment to international cooperation on prevention and control of COVID-19, as well as a similar outbreak of new emerging infectious diseases.
作为一项独特的防控措施，国家医疗队派遣至武汉对武汉抗击 COVID-19 发挥了关键作用。本研究旨在定量评估这一关键措施在减少感染和死亡方面的效果。
本研究采用情景分析，情景的形成基于向武汉派遣医疗队的阶段。我们将评估分为 4 种情景：情景 1-无派遣，情景 2-派遣 4599 名医务人员，情景 3-派遣 16000 名工作人员，情景 4-派遣 32000 名工作人员。
采用扩展的易感-暴露-感染-恢复-死亡模型来量化国家医疗队派遣至武汉对 COVID-19 防控的效果。
派遣工作显著减少了病毒传播的途径，成功提高了治愈率，降低了死亡率。如果根本没有派遣，武汉市将累计确诊 158881 例，死亡 18700 例，死亡率为 11.77%，分别是实际数字的 3.2 倍、4.8 倍和 1.5 倍。派遣工作避免了武汉市 108541 例确诊病例和 14831 例死亡。
这一经过验证的成功措施为 COVID-19 防控的国际合作以及类似新发传染病的爆发提供了宝贵的经验和启示。
