González-Reyes José Roberto, Hernández-Flores María de la Luz, Paredes-Zarco Jesús Eduardo, Téllez-Jurado Alejandro, Fayad-Meneses Omar, Carranza-Ramírez Lamán
Investigación Aplicada para el Bienestar Social y Ambiental Asociación Civil (INABISA A.C.), Pachuca 42088, Mexico.
Consejo Ejecutivo del Complejo Científico y Tecnológico Sincrotrón, San Agustín Tlaxiaca 42163, Mexico.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Aug 13;18(16):8547. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18168547.
A month-long wastewater sampling project was conducted along the northeast periphery of Mexico City, specifically in the state of Hidalgo, to assess the presence of SARS-CoV-2. To determine the prevalence of infection and obtain a range of COVID-19 cases in the main metropolitan zones. Viral RNA residues (0-197,655 copies/L) were measured in wastewater from the five central municipalities in the state. By recording the number of RNA viral copies per liter, micro-basins delimitation, demographic and physiological data, an interval of infected people and virus prevalence was estimated using a Monte Carlo model (with 90% confidence) in the micro-basin of five municipalities with metropolitan influence or industrial activity. Our procedure determined that the percentage of the infected population ranges from 1.4% to 41.7%, while the official data reports 0.1-0.3%. This model is proposed as a helpful method of regional epidemiological monitoring through the analysis of viral prevalence.
在墨西哥城东北边缘，特别是伊达尔戈州，开展了一项为期一个月的废水采样项目，以评估严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）的存在情况。目的是确定感染率，并获取主要都市区域的一系列冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例数。对该州五个中心城市的废水进行了病毒核糖核酸（RNA）残留量（0 - 197,655拷贝/升）测定。通过记录每升RNA病毒拷贝数、微流域划分、人口和生理数据，在五个具有都市影响力或工业活动的城市微流域中，使用蒙特卡洛模型（置信度为90%）估算了感染人群区间和病毒流行率。我们的程序确定感染人口百分比在1.4%至41.7%之间，而官方数据报告为0.1 - 0.3%。该模型被提议作为一种通过分析病毒流行率进行区域流行病学监测的有用方法。
