Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, United Kingdom.
Epidemics. 2021 Dec;37:100499. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100499. Epub 2021 Aug 30.
The COVID-19 pandemic has seen infectious disease modelling at the forefront of government decision-making. Models have been widely used throughout the pandemic to estimate pathogen spread and explore the potential impact of different intervention strategies. Infectious disease modellers and policymakers have worked effectively together, but there are many avenues for progress on this interface. In this paper, we identify and discuss seven broad challenges on the interaction of models and policy for pandemic control. We then conclude with suggestions and recommendations for the future.
COVID-19 大流行期间,传染病建模处于政府决策的前沿。在整个大流行期间,模型被广泛用于估计病原体的传播,并探索不同干预策略的潜在影响。传染病建模者和政策制定者已经有效地合作,但在这个界面上还有许多可以改进的地方。在本文中,我们确定并讨论了大流行控制中模型与政策相互作用的七个广泛挑战。最后,我们提出了一些建议和未来的展望。