Department of Psychology, Center for Cognitive and Decision Sciences, University of Basel.
Psychol Sci. 2021 Oct;32(10):1592-1604. doi: 10.1177/0956797621998312. Epub 2021 Sep 22.
What drives people's perceptions of novel risks, and how malleable are such risk perceptions? Psychological research has identified multiple potential drivers of risk perception, but no studies have yet tested within a unified analytic framework how well each of these drivers accounts for individual differences in large population samples. To provide such a framework, I harnessed the deployment of 5G-the latest generation of cellular network technology. Specifically, I conducted a multiverse analysis using a representative population sample in Switzerland (Study 1; = 2,919 individuals between 15 and 94 years old), finding that interindividual differences in risk perceptions were strongly associated with hazard-related drivers (e.g., trust in the institutions regulating 5G, dread) and person-specific drivers (e.g., electromagnetic hypersensitivity)-and strongly predictive of people's policy-related attitudes (e.g., voting intentions). Further, a field experiment based on a national expert report on 5G ( = 839 individuals in a longitudinal sample between 17 and 79 years old) identified links between intraindividual changes in psychological drivers and perceived risk, thus highlighting potential targets for future policy interventions.
是什么驱动了人们对新风险的看法，而这些风险认知又有多大的可塑性呢？心理学研究已经确定了多种潜在的风险认知驱动因素，但还没有研究在统一的分析框架内测试这些驱动因素在大人群样本中各自能在多大程度上解释个体差异。为了提供这样一个框架，我利用了第五代移动通信技术（5G）的部署。具体来说，我在瑞士的一个代表性人群样本中进行了多元宇宙分析（研究 1；=2919 名年龄在 15 至 94 岁之间的个体），发现风险认知的个体差异与危险相关的驱动因素（例如，对监管 5G 的机构的信任、恐惧）和个体特定的驱动因素（例如，电磁过敏）强烈相关，并且强烈预测了人们的政策相关态度（例如，投票意向）。此外，一项基于 5G 国家专家报告的现场实验（=839 名年龄在 17 岁至 79 岁之间的纵向样本中的个体）确定了心理驱动因素的个体内变化与感知风险之间的联系，从而突出了未来政策干预的潜在目标。
