Liu Tian, Qi Li, Yao Menglei, Tian Keqing, Lin Maowen, Jiang Hong, Zeng Minmin, Huang Jigui
Department of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou city, Hubei Province, China.
Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
China CDC Wkly. 2020 Jul 3;2(27):491-495. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2020.118.
WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?: The key epidemiological parameters including serial interval, basic reproductive number ( ), and effective reproductive number ( ) are crucial for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control and prevention. Previous studies provided different estimations but were often flawed by some limitations such as insufficient sample size and selection bias.
WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: In this study, a total of 116 infector-infectee pairs meeting strict inclusion criteria were selected for analysis. The mean serial interval of COVID-19 was 5.81 days (standard deviation: 3.24). The estimated mean with 95% confidence interval of was 3.39 (3.07-3.75) and 2.98 (2.62-3.38) using exponential growth (EG) and maximum likelihood (ML) methods, respectively. The in the early phase of the epidemic was above 1 with the peak of 4.43 occurring on January 8, and then showing subsequent declines and approaching 1 on January 24.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICES?: This study supports previous findings that COVID-19 has high transmissibility and that implementing comprehensive measures is effective in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak.
关于该主题已知的信息有哪些？：包括潜伏期、基本再生数（ ）和有效再生数（ ）在内的关键流行病学参数对于2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的防控至关重要。以往的研究提供了不同的估计值，但往往存在一些局限性，如样本量不足和选择偏倚。
本报告新增了哪些内容？：在本研究中，共选择了116对符合严格纳入标准的感染者-被感染者对进行分析。COVID-19的平均潜伏期为5.81天（标准差：3.24）。使用指数增长（EG）和最大似然（ML）方法， 的估计平均值得出95%置信区间分别为3.39（3.07 - 3.75）和2.98（2.62 - 3.38）。疫情早期的 大于1，1月8日达到峰值4.43，随后下降，1月24日接近1。
对公共卫生实践有哪些启示？：本研究支持了先前的研究结果，即COVID-19具有高传播性，实施综合措施对控制COVID-19疫情有效。
