Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2021 Oct 20;12(1):6096. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26356-y.
Achieving net-zero CO emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world. Although many studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways, the common features and tradeoffs of energy systems across global scenarios at the point of net-zero CO emissions have not yet been evaluated. Here, we examine the energy systems of 177 net-zero scenarios and discuss their long-term technological and regional characteristics in the context of current energy policies. We find that, on average, renewable energy sources account for 60% of primary energy at net-zero (compared to ∼14% today), with slightly less than half of that renewable energy derived from biomass. Meanwhile, electricity makes up approximately half of final energy consumed (compared to ∼20% today), highlighting the extent to which solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels remain prevalent in the scenarios even when emissions reach net-zero. Finally, residual emissions and offsetting negative emissions are not evenly distributed across world regions, which may have important implications for negotiations on burden-sharing, human development, and equity.
实现净零二氧化碳排放已成为世界上许多气候能源政策的明确目标。尽管许多研究都评估了净零排放路径，但在净零二氧化碳排放点，全球情景下能源系统的共同特征和权衡仍未得到评估。在这里，我们研究了 177 个净零排放情景的能源系统，并在当前能源政策的背景下讨论了它们的长期技术和区域特征。我们发现，平均而言，可再生能源在净零排放时占主要能源的 60%（相比之下，今天约为 14%），其中不到一半的可再生能源来自生物质。同时，电力约占最终能源消耗的一半（相比之下，今天约为 20%），这突出表明，即使排放达到净零，固体、液体和气体燃料在情景中仍然普遍存在。最后，残留排放和抵消负排放在世界各地区的分布并不均匀，这可能对分担负担、人类发展和公平性的谈判产生重要影响。
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