Walkowiak Marcin Piotr, Walkowiak Dariusz
Department of Preventive Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, 60-179 Poznań, Poland.
Department of Organization and Management in Health Care, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, 60-356 Poznań, Poland.
Vaccines (Basel). 2021 Oct 9;9(10):1153. doi: 10.3390/vaccines9101153.
The high effectiveness of a vaccination-promotion campaign, which may be measured by the number of those successfully convinced to get vaccinated, is a key factor in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. This, however, appears to be linked to the precise identification of the underlying causes for vaccine hesitancy behaviours. Based on a regression model (adjusted R of 0.78) analysing 378 sub-regions of Poland, we showed that such behaviours, even when going against the party agenda, can be indirectly yet precisely gauged predominantly through voting patterns. Additionally, education and population density were found to be positively related to low vaccine hesitancy, while markers of social exclusion, both external (employment rate) and psychological (voter turnout) ones, affected it negatively. In the second, follow-up part of our study, which analyses the changes that took place in two months (adjusted R of 0.53), we found a further increase in vaccination rate to be positively related to the number of those already vaccinated and to the political views of the population, and negatively related to its level of education. In both cases, there was a surprisingly weak relationship between the potential markers of accessibility and vaccination rate. In spite of the known overall differences in vaccination rates for different age and sex groups, these variables did not have any additional informative value in explaining the observed regional differences.
疫苗推广活动的高效性（可通过成功说服接种疫苗的人数来衡量）是抗击新冠疫情的关键因素。然而，这似乎与准确识别疫苗犹豫行为的根本原因有关。基于对波兰378个次区域进行分析的回归模型（调整后R值为0.78），我们发现，即便这些行为与政党议程相悖，也能主要通过投票模式间接地但精确地进行衡量。此外，研究发现教育程度和人口密度与较低的疫苗犹豫程度呈正相关，而社会排斥的指标，包括外部指标（就业率）和心理指标（选民投票率），则对疫苗犹豫程度产生负面影响。在我们研究的第二部分（即后续部分），分析了两个月内发生的变化（调整后R值为0.53），我们发现疫苗接种率的进一步提高与已接种疫苗的人数以及民众的政治观点呈正相关，与教育程度呈负相关。在这两种情况下，可及性的潜在指标与疫苗接种率之间的关系出人意料地微弱。尽管不同年龄和性别群体的疫苗接种率存在已知的总体差异，但这些变量在解释观察到的区域差异方面没有任何额外的信息价值。
