Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, 15260, USA.
Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 25;11(1):20982. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-00486-1.
Intermittent and periodic outbreaks of infectious diseases have had profound and lasting effects on societies throughout human history. During the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting coronavirus disease (COVID-19), social distance has been imposed worldwide to limit the spread of the virus. An additional deliberate intention of keeping a minimum safety distance from neighbors can fundamentally alter the "social force" between individuals. Here, we introduce a new "social distance" term inspired by gas molecular dynamics and integrate it into an existing agent-based social force model to describe the dynamics of crowds under social-distanced conditions. The advantage of this "social distance" term over the simple increasing of the repulsive range of other alternatives is that the fundamental crowd properties are precisely described by our model parameters. We compare the new model with the Helbing and Molnar's classical model and experimental data, and show that this new model is superior in reproducing experimental data. We demonstrate the usability of this model with a bottleneck motion base case. The new model shows that the bottleneck effect can be significantly alleviated through small wall modifications. Lastly, we explain the mechanism of this improvement and conclude that this improvement is due to spatial asymmetry.
传染病的间歇性和周期性爆发对整个人类历史上的社会产生了深远而持久的影响。在 SARS-CoV-2 全球传播和由此产生的冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 期间,为了限制病毒的传播,全球范围内都实施了社交距离措施。故意与邻居保持最小安全距离的额外意图,可以从根本上改变个体之间的“社交力”。在这里,我们引入了一个受气体分子动力学启发的新的“社交距离”术语,并将其集成到现有的基于主体的社交力模型中,以描述社交距离条件下人群的动力学。与其他替代方案中简单增加排斥范围相比,这个“社交距离”术语的优势在于,我们的模型参数精确地描述了基本人群特性。我们将新模型与 Helbing 和 Molnar 的经典模型和实验数据进行了比较,结果表明该新模型在再现实验数据方面更优越。我们用瓶颈运动的基础案例展示了该模型的可用性。新模型表明,通过对墙壁进行微小的修改可以显著减轻瓶颈效应。最后,我们解释了这种改进的机制,并得出结论,这种改进是由于空间不对称性造成的。