Verma Parag, Dumka Ankur, Bhardwaj Anuj, Ashok Alaknanda, Kestwal Mukesh Chandra, Kumar Praveen
Computer Science and Engineering, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun, India.
Computer Science and Engineering, Women Institute of Technology (Govt.), Dehradun, India.
SN Comput Sci. 2021;2(1):27. doi: 10.1007/s42979-020-00410-w. Epub 2021 Jan 9.
The outbreak of pandemic COVID-19 across the world has completely disrupted the political, social, economic, religious, and financial structures of the world. According to the data of April 22nd, 2020, more than 4.6 million people have been screened, in which the infection has made more than 2.7 million people positive, in which 182,740 people have died due to infection. More than 80 countries have closed their borders from transitioning countries, ordered businesses to close, instructed their populations to self-quarantine, and closed schools to an estimated 1.5 billion children. The world's top ten economies such as the United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, India, Italy, Brazil, and Canada stand on the verge of complete collapse. In addition, stock markets around the world have been pounded, and tax revenue sources have fallen off a cliff. The epidemic due to infection is having a noticeable impact on global economic development. It is estimated that by now the virus could exceed global economic growth by more than 2.0% per month if the current situation persists. Global trade may also fall from 13 to 32% depending on the depth and extent of the global economic slowdown. The full impact will not be known until the effects of the epidemic occurred. This research analyses the impact of COVID-19 on the economic growth and stock market as well. The aim of this research is to present how well COVID-19 correlated with economic growth through gross domestic products (GDP). In addition, the research considers the top five other tax revenue sources like S&P500 (GPSC), Crude oil (CL = F), Gold (GC = F), Silver (SI = F), Natural Gas (NG = F), iShares 20 + Year Treasury Bond (TLT), and correlate with the COVID-19. To fulfill the statistical analysis purpose this research uses publically available data from yahoo finance, IMF, and John Hopkins COVID-19 map with regression models that revealed a moderated positive correlation between them. The model was used to track the impact of COVID 19 on economic variation and the stock market to see how well and how far in advance the prediction holds true, if at all. The hope is that the model will be able to correctly make predictions a couple of quarters in advance, and describe why the changes are occurring. This research can support how policymakers, business strategy makers, and investors can understand the situation and use the model for prediction.
全球新冠疫情大爆发彻底扰乱了世界的政治、社会、经济、宗教和金融结构。根据2020年4月22日的数据，已有超过460万人接受筛查，其中感染人数超过270万，因感染死亡182740人。80多个国家已对过境国关闭边境，下令企业停业，指示民众自我隔离，并对约15亿儿童关闭学校。美国、中国、日本、德国、英国、法国、印度、意大利、巴西和加拿大等世界十大经济体濒临全面崩溃。此外，全球股市遭受重创，税收来源锐减。感染引发的疫情正在对全球经济发展产生显著影响。据估计，如果当前形势持续下去，到目前为止该病毒每月可能使全球经济增长率下降超过2.0%。根据全球经济放缓的深度和程度，全球贸易可能下降13%至32%。在疫情影响显现之前，其全面影响尚不可知。本研究还分析了新冠疫情对经济增长和股市的影响。本研究的目的是通过国内生产总值（GDP）展现新冠疫情与经济增长的关联程度。此外，该研究还考虑了其他五大税收来源，如标准普尔500指数（GPSC）、原油（CL=F）、黄金（GC=F）、白银（SI=F）、天然气（NG=F）、安硕20年期以上国债（TLT），并将它们与新冠疫情进行关联分析。为实现统计分析目的，本研究使用了雅虎财经、国际货币基金组织以及约翰·霍普金斯新冠疫情地图的公开数据，并运用回归模型揭示它们之间存在适度的正相关关系。该模型用于追踪新冠疫情对经济变化和股市的影响，以观察预测的准确性以及提前多久能做出准确预测。希望该模型能够提前几个季度正确做出预测，并说明变化发生的原因。本研究可为政策制定者、商业战略制定者和投资者了解形势并利用该模型进行预测提供支持。
