Department of Political Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.
Democracy and Polarization Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Nov 9;118(45). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2103619118.
After the 2020 US presidential election Donald Trump refused to concede, alleging widespread and unparalleled voter fraud. Trump's supporters deployed several statistical arguments in an attempt to cast doubt on the result. Reviewing the most prominent of these statistical claims, we conclude that none of them is even remotely convincing. The common logic behind these claims is that, if the election were fairly conducted, some feature of the observed 2020 election result would be unlikely or impossible. In each case, we find that the purportedly anomalous fact is either not a fact or not anomalous.
2020 年美国总统大选后，唐纳德·特朗普拒绝认输，声称存在广泛且前所未有的选民欺诈行为。特朗普的支持者们提出了一些统计论点，试图对选举结果表示怀疑。在对这些最突出的统计主张进行审查后，我们的结论是，它们没有一个是有说服力的。这些主张背后的共同逻辑是，如果选举是公正进行的，那么观察到的 2020 年选举结果的某些特征将是不太可能或不可能的。在每种情况下，我们发现所谓的异常事实要么不是事实，要么不是异常。
