A rigorous framework for detecting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein mutational ensemble from genomic and structural features.

The recent release of SARS-CoV-2 genomic data from several countries has provided clues into the potential antigenic drift of the coronavirus population. In particular, the genomic instability observed in the spike protein necessitates immediate action and further exploration in the context of viral-host interactions. By temporally tracking 527,988 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identified invariant and hypervariable regions within the spike protein. We evaluated combination of mutations from SARS-CoV-2 lineages and found that maximum number of lineage-defining mutations were present in the N-terminal domain (NTD). Based on mutant 3D-structural models of known Variants of Concern (VOCs), we found that structural properties such as accessibility, secondary structural type, and intra-protein interactions at local mutation sites are greatly altered. Further, we observed significant differences between intra-protein networks of wild-type and Delta mutant, with the latter showing dense intra-protein contacts. Extensive molecular dynamics simulations of D614G mutant spike structure with hACE2 further revealed dynamic features with 47.7% of mutations mapping on flexible regions of spike protein. Thus, we propose that significant changes within spike protein structure have occurred that may impact SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis, and repositioning of vaccine candidates is required to contain the spread of COVID-19 pathogen.